A short Vic paper. http://www-cse.stanford.edu/classes/cs201/projects-98-99/financial-transactions/large_investors1.htm
Vic didn't go under in 1997. He's no saint and he's definitely not a humble guy. Just another attitude filled New Yorker with a healthy respect for risk. Here's a audio interview with him from Dec. 99 for those that are interested. http://www.wallstreetuncut.com/wsuArchive.htm "Would Ayn Rand Draw To An Inside Straight?" 12/17/1999
I like how you mentioned the two "Vics". I should have used that earlier, when I said Vic Sperandeo's stuff was based on experience, not theories that have never been tested (that's where the other Vic fits in)... Not to say that Victor Niederhoffer's bad - I'm reading his new book and it seems pretty sharp (except the spooky Chapter about the Meme, where he honestly seems to think the Devil's personally out to get him... of course, that *would* explain his massive blowout). In the book, Niederhoffer seems geniunely baffled by the government's decision to go after Microsoft, Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" speech, normal Fed behavior, etc. Trader Vic doesn't like all of the government's behavior, but at least he understands what they're thinking and can figure out how to trade much of it. Trader Vic seems to have a much stronger grasp on reality - but hey, who am I to talk? I forgot to put on my pants before I left for work today. Thank god the coffee shop lady told me before I got to work and REALLY embarrassed myself. By the way, *which* technical indicator of Trader Vic's are you so hot on? I've read the books, I got a lot of good ideas from them, but I may have overlooked something or forgotten something. Remind me, lead me in the right direction! There was a lot of "meat" to those things, despite being a tenth of the size of some of the other books I have.
First Book: Chapter 5 - A True Understanding Of Trends Chapter 6 - The Merits And Hazards Of Technical Analysis! Chapter 7 - Where Fortunes Are Made - Identifying A Change Of Trend How many of you did/do not know how to correctly draw a trend line - the equivalent of being able to read? Vic quietly took care of that little problem for me before anyone was the wiser. He He. Geo.
anyone print off this thread and fax it to him, perhaps he'll find time to join in with the Elite of the EliteTraders
5287, Those chapters were immensely helpful to me too. As Vic points out, even the biggest educators out there sometimes fail to precisely and rigorously define how to to draw a simple trendline. As you say, it is indeed, akin to being able to read, or even, knowing the alphabet The change of trend is, no doubt, where big cachingos can be made, but of course not everyone has the mental makeup to deal with it. You can only think in terms of odds as Vic says, given the duration of the trend and the other technical setups. I have found analysis of time and price fibonnaci work to be excellent complements to Vic's solid method. A change in trend cannot be identified with absolute certainty ex ante of course, but if you only trade when all the signs are pointing in one direction, then you can trade well providing you also protect your capital. One of the things I really admire about Vic is that he starts out his book with perhaps the most important chapter, on risk control and the preservation of capital. How many trading book authors out there start their books by focusing on risk? In my experience, it is typically at the end of the book... for ex, in Rick Bensignor's New Thinking in Technical Analysis he has his mm chapter as last chapter with Courtney Smith's insights. One stock that is potentially changing trend right now is VLO. Looks like a decent short. One could have a plan to reverse and go long above the recent pullback should it suddenly turn around and head higher. This is just an example, not trying to promote ideas here. Maverick
Trends are like Roses & Young Girls, They last while they last. ......Trader Vic .....( ala.... Charles DeGaulle ) I read Trader Vic II, but did not read his first book, Did I miss anything important ? Sounds like it ..........
Would some of you , gents , post a rough description of Vic's Chapter 7 about identifying trend changes. Or better yet, detailed one but I do not want to sound too demanding . Walter