When you have the CNBC hacks on cable tv preaching doom and gloom and how we are now in a recession and stocks would drop like a rock, you know they are leading the sheep to slaughter! Ignorant retail traders deserve to have their heads handed to them. At the same time, we have reports of a robust Chinese economy. The Chinese government being a communist nation has been pumping cash into their economy to avoid a slowdown due to the tariffs among other problems they have.
Nasdaq looks much more more like 2006 (with a year left to go in the bull) than 2008. Also see 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2016. Bull markets by nature make many new highs and fail many apparent tops, only one of which is the final high and the top that "works". Certainly doesn't exclude the possibility of a short term move lower, but if that happened I'd be looking to buy.
For myself, having an opinion on direction is pointless, whether it goes up or down, let's make some money.
THE BAD, THE GOOD, THE BEST There was this high, snow covered mountain that people loved to attempt to climb. It was beautiful and halfway up was a fine restaurant built precisely for folks that were climbing to take a break. And of course it was a money maker. The restaurant had large glass windows and top of the line chefs. Fireplace roaring...just real cozy and warm and a wonderful view through the windows. As amateurs and tourists climbed there were some, even before reaching the halfway point, would complain this is too hard, the view is really pretty but I am going back down. These promptly descended leaving victory behind in the dust, or shall I say the snow. They missed out on the restaurant..the good food...the view...and the warmth and chatter of other climbers. They simply quit too early to enjoy the fruits and benefits of climbing this gorgeous mountain. These are the bad climbers. There were other climbers who buckled down exerted themselves and made it to restaurant. They ate great meals sipped hot chocolate...talked about their journey to the halfway point and bragged on their exploits along the way. Then the talk got serious. It dawned on them that they were only halfway up. They decided they just didn’t want to continue. So, they got together their gear and headed back down. These are the halfway climbers. These are the good climbers. There were a few climbers who after eating ..as they sipped on the hot chocolate with the warm fireplace at their back ...they began to turn the conversation to, and focus onto, the rest of the journey. They began to motivate themselves to continue. They began to see the peak was achievable. They could see the peak from the roof windows of the restaurant and they concluded that the subsequent leg was an even steeper climb than the previous leg was getting to the restaurant....the halfway point. They could clearly “see” where the path was headed. They decided they would hit the trail and go the rest of the way up and reach the peak. So, they began climbing. Doubts surfaced along the way as the climb was unbelievably steep in some areas. But they continued taking breaks, renewing energy in the less steeper parts of the climb. Finally, they reached the peak. It was a great moment...a beautiful view. A deep sense of gratification gripped them. They were happy that they held the line...pushed through and made it. These were the BEST climbers and they knew it! At the foot of the mountain in the base camp were congregated the bad and good climbers. They were drinking beer and whiskey and trying to celebrate their decisions. Suddenly over the radio came an announcement that a handful of climbers had reached the peak. It got real quiet and a deep sadness settled in over the group. It quickly dawned on them what they had missed out on something GREAT. They would not be able to tell their grandchildren they reached the peak. They missed the greatest view of all. They missed out on the fame and glory that came in the subsequent news articles. Finally, one brave soul amongst them meekly suggested they should overlook their own bad decisions and at least applaud those who did in fact finish the journey. So they did. Mr “T” has built us a beautiful mountain. And a beautiful restaurant. His trademark. We are almost halfway. Many have turned back already before reaching the halfway point having given up and become retreating bears sliding down the mountain and are by now broke with nary a cent to buy a shot of whiskey in the base camp. These are the bad traders. The bar had mercy on them and served them anyway. The rest the traders ..well some have made it to the restaurant while others are very near. There is much talk about the journey up. Some say no one will be able to make it on up to the peak. That all must, and should end, right here. They proclaim: “enjoy the meal and hot chocolate then return to base camp.” These will begin shorting and shorting the market over and over when the path is clearly up. They may well end up sliding into base camp headfirst, depressed..broke..crying. They probably will complain about how they were cheated and manipulated. In fact they ended up in worse condition that those that quit before reaching the halfway point. These were they who thought that they were the best traders. The bar donated to them a beer and two shots of whiskey to help dull “a tiny bit” their agony and pain. However, a few traders clearly saw the path to prosperity that Mr T had carved put for them. He is a builder after all, you know. In spite of the ridicule of many in his own nation and most of the rest of the world, Mr T persisted and began building this mountain for any to climb who wished to do so. He labeled it MAGO “Make A Great Opportunity. Many spouted it couldn't be done. Others said it was illegal. Some even said he was an agent of another distant nation and that he was destroying the very fabric, heart and soul of their society. Even a few said he was destroying the environment and that we needed a new green colored deal of some sort to save the world which would soon be ending unless Mr T was stopped. Daily Mr T was subject to a daily barrage of foolishness all with the intent to stop his mountain building..restaurant building...and close down his position by getting him “fired so to speak”..etc. A possibly very biased (probably from the get go) special investigation was implemented apparently with the goal of ending his mountain building. The reason was most likely extreme jealousy as none of his naysayers... NONE... of them had EVER been able to build such a mountain and offer SUCH an opportunity. Anyway, Mr T pushed through..winning right and left and continued building his mountain. At this point the restaurant is open for business at the halfway point but they are still putting the finishing touches on it. I, for one, am an extremely biased long-term bull ...short-term bear trader who will CAPITALIZE on the long-term opportunity created by Mr T (a once in a lifetime gift) but I will also short every decline I deem profitable or at min add to long positions on the decline. Nevertheless, MUCH more (than buy and hold) can be made by jumping in and out and back in..rinse and repeat....etc ad nauseum.. until I reach the peak. I am a trader. Now if the jealous elite manage to stop Mr T and tar and feather him then I will make haste and look to become a bear long-term short-term bull trader longing every feasible rally or at min adding to short position at top of the many, many, multiple smaller rallies and larger declines as the economy collapses ..all the fault of the jealous greenish deal ...anti capitalist..socialistic agenda...globalist.. elites. It will be ENTIRELY their fault. Nevertheless, whoever wins I will play the market..whichever way... Will you? Mr T has the potential of going down in history has the GREATEST opportunity creator in the history of the country...providing he don’t get covered in tar and feathers by the elite. Are you a bad..a good..or a best..trader? We are at the halfway point... in a restaurant sipping hot chocolate. The pathway up will probably be steep. Are you ready for the climb? Or will you slide nose down first like a bear on a snow covered mountain? Just look at where we have been...where we came from..where we are..and where we are going..(chartist) the subsequent extrapolation favors up...up..up..and away. DISCLAIMER: All of this is my opinion only and in NO WAY is it meant to be trading or investment advice. It is only for education and entertainment, fun, and joking around....warning: you lose lots of money in the markets...ROFLMAO
%% Partly true,dnomad but much of it is so subjective-LOL As far as disliking/hating something like 200 day moving average -fine with me. I dont use a 200 dma in a mindless mechanical sense; even though its a clear line in the sand.[I know General Haggerty [Fidelity Capital markets] warned institutions dont like to admit they use a 200 dma] One of the larger[about average] hedge funds wrote a insulting opinion/article [ WSJ] of using moving averages; that can be fine also .WE dont want all trying to buy or sell @ same time. LOL,
Hmm, if Amazon coming out with it's super numbers today cannot lift the NQ to new highs, the bull market is truly dead? After all, it is the highest-weight-average on the Nasdaq, yes? Microsoft yesterday was great on the report. But today, Intel+AMZN+MSFT has helped nothing, and the NQ is down a bunch. What is left to push the Nasdaq, and thus the NQ, to new highs? NOTHING. The China Trade thing is priced in, the durable goods number was weighed, measured, and found to be wanting. Tomorrow is the Advance GDP. Unless that comes in SPECTACULAR, I'ma gonna' have to bail on my longs and lose months of progress. As I mentioned in the first post...It sux being a bull currently.