Very Rare Occurrence on the $DJI

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ess1096, Apr 30, 2020.

  1. ess1096


    It has been about a decade since I last posted here. I’m not making a prediction but I am sharing an observation. Since August of 1982 the Dow Jones industrial average has only closed below it’s 40 MONTH moving average TWO TIMES. Closing the month below its 40 month moving average once in 2001 and again in 2008, it proceeded both times to eventually rally back up to the 40 MONTH and fail. In 2001 it dropped an additional 32.5% over eight months and in 2008 it dropped an additional 44.4% over eight months from the failure at the 40 month average.

    Today, April 30, 2020 The Dow Jones industrial average closed for the month below the 40 month average after rallying back to that point following its close well below that average in March, 2020.

    The same thing happened in 1930 and again in 1937 during the great depression. The 1930 failure to regain the 40 month average was followed by an additional drop of 83% over the following 23 months. The 1937 failure to recapture the 40 month average was followed by a 41% drop over 42 months.
  2. fan27


    Thanks for the info! Hope you don't wait another decade before posting again.
    Clubber Lang, Sekiyo and ess1096 like this.
  3. So you are saying BUY BUY BUY?
  4. hilmy83


    it closed below 40 month average and rallied in
    and many other examples i'm too lazy to list...
    TooEffingOld likes this.
  5. ess1096


    I specifically said “since August of 1982”.
    I also pointed out two occurrences during the depression but my post was specific to the 1982 until now range.
    Clubber Lang likes this.
  6. Thanks for posting
    Stuff like that used to really set off alarm bells.
    But ever since the 2008 crash, the Fed and government has completely destroyed all fundamental, statistical, and historical analysis with their never ending interference.
  7. ess1096


    This is too true! Sadly.
  8. Ha ha, there will always be some n-day average of sorts to corroborate any given story!
  9. ess1096


    Just wanted to add a visual.
    This being said, the S&P did recapture it’s 40 Month MA and is now supported there.
    However, please extend a line at the 2018 S&P high, 2940, and see how it has affected the weekly and daily charts recently. A weekly close above that will be very bullish. Until then be cautious.
    Most markets globally peaked in 2018 yet the US market went to new highs.
    No predictions here, only observations.
  10. Very very interesting.
    #10     May 16, 2020
    ess1096 likes this.