Weâve got some pleasant surprises for the economy this morning. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 3.9% vs forecast - 2.0% Durable Goods Orders m/m 3.4% vs forecast - 2.3% New Home Sales 337K vs forecast 322K Good news. But how reliable are they? Is this a sign for the economy turning for the better?
Look at the downward revisions for the prior month. These reports are horseshit. It reminds me of the wildly inaccurate unemployment claims reports understating claims by pretty wide margins, that kept getting revised, last year. All this inaccuracy does is destroy confidence.
Tricky! Then how do we know which number is reliable and which is not? Or should we just ignore the economic data