Very conservative consistent strategy?

Discussion in 'Options' started by lightfightercap, Aug 26, 2018.

  1. srinir

    srinir

    Don't need to pay for this simple test. One can do it and much more for free here.

    Here is the result for same strategy from 1990.

    https://tinyurl.com/y7usxzox

    Snap5.png
     
    #21     Aug 29, 2018
    ironchef and tommcginnis like this.
  2. sle

    sle

    Out of curiosity, how does the quality of PnL (Sharpe, Max DD) vary with the length of the SMA? I'd imagine this has to be fairly curve-fit (10 month, why no 12 or 9?).
     
    #22     Aug 29, 2018
  3. drcha

    drcha

    In general, times between 3 and 12 months tend to work.
     
    #23     Aug 29, 2018
  4. srinir

    srinir

    Meb Faber has done work on parametric study on different datasets (US, international, real estate, commodities and Bonds)

    From his studies 3-12 months has similar characterstic. 10 month SMA is probably because, it is lot closer to 200 day sma (self fulfilling because lot of traders use it) and tax considerations.

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=962461

    Snap6.png
     
    #24     Aug 29, 2018
  5. sle

    sle

    Interesting. I've never played with anything on that scale (mostly because I have to be market-neutral), but it's pretty :)
     
    #25     Aug 29, 2018
  6. I fear that the discussion is going off-topic? The topic starter is asking for an investment with low risk for an investment period of 2 or 3 months. He is not looking for investment advice for a decade or more.
     
    #26     Aug 29, 2018
  7. srinir

    srinir

    Interestingly Meb Faber's rules based ETF (GMOM) based on similar SMA and momentum has not fared well.

    https://bit.ly/2Nzncmx
     
    #27     Aug 29, 2018
  8. #28     Aug 29, 2018
  9. srinir

    srinir

    #29     Aug 29, 2018
  10. ironchef

    ironchef

    Anything paying better than the risk free rate has risks or arbitrageurs would arb it away.
     
    #30     Aug 30, 2018