I will take the other side of your very naive view. I will also say that 1225 is an intermediate term top. So one of us is wrong.
Like I said I got out of the dow... I have rotated to the Nasdaq with a really tight intraday stop here but my view on the Nasdaq is pretty long term (over a month) but I'm trying to find a safe intraday setup.
Why did you have to call his view naive? I thought the purpose of this place was for traders to help traders?....you made a good call in your S&P thread you started awhile back and others posted telling you so but let's give it a rest already.....now by telling this poster that his view is "naive" just shows your more into a pissing contest like so many other web sites such as my dick is bigger than your dick than you are in being helpful...leave the ego at the door. Why can't traders be helping traders instead of flaming one another?
Waaah! This philosophy is the biggest set of manure ever. I'll tell you why. When I make a sale, someone else is buying. There is always the other side to every trade. Drukes made a fine call, and i'm saying one of us will be wrong, as is true with EVERY trade (ie there is a buyer for each seller). It will probably be me. As far as me calling the idea "naive", maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part. And my dick is bigger than yours.
That would be you ! But seriously ...... alll of this is just so much talk. In the last few days the market has seemed to be saying that your prediction was wrong but who knew for sure until this morning ... although everything could change between now and the open but with the numbers that came out today ... probably not. And you know what ? If I observe a sentiment change I will just change the structure of my positions ... no big deal. Calling tops or bottoms (even relatively short term) is not something I have ever learned to do accurately after 20 or so years working in the markets ..... I can really only trade the probabilities based upon my models.....