Yeah, vacationers will be coming back next week, and the beige book comes out on wednesday. the big movement will likely come the following week though. I'll likely be opening many OCT positions then.
Not seeing too many opportunities for a CTM vertical spread on the handful of indexes I follow. The only thing that looks a bit tempting is to roll my OIH position into October, but really should have done that yesterday.
I know you are looking for resistance at 1310, I'm concerned about what could happen next week when traders start coming back and volume picks up. I'll admit, things look really good for such a position, I guess I'm being a little cautious. An Oct 1340/1345 spread is going for $1.70.
I'll probably be proven wrong next week, but I think we will see a correction when the big players start coming back. Everyone is going to be focusing on the beige book next week and the CPI the week after that. The beige book is usually interesting. Most times the move doesn't come until the following day. It provides some interesting opportunities. The CPI OTOH will likely cause a significant move, especially as it falls on a quad witching friday.
I tend to agree with you Cache. This weeks "rally" especially today has such a bogus feel to it. While I think we should have rebounded from the lows of the summer, there doesn't seem to be the justification for being only 12 pts below the highs of the year. Next week will be interesting because I do think most money managers may want to cash in their gains. However if they have been in cash they may put some money into the market. Sentiment now is bullish which is usually a good contrarian sign. Read this am that bear's are only about 25% same reading as April 4 and May 10...hummmmm I've actually been selling CTM (at least for me) Oct call spreads
Today's Action BTO 2 SPX OCT 1260 p @ 6.8 Year to Date P/L Account Value: $14,848.50 YTD Gross P/L: 5,480.00 YTD Commiss: 631.50 YTD Net P/L: 4,848.50 YTD % P/L: 48.5% Couldn't resist. This whole time I've been talking about 1310 resistance so I figured I'd better back up my mouth.
this market is resilient. just like back in april/may. rally mode all the way. i think cache is falling in love with these 1-sigma out puts.
LOL, rather the extremely low vol environment resulting in "cheap" puts. Yeah, it is quite resilient. But you know what they say. "What goes up......." The question is whether or not I can stomach any more bull moves.