I do well with the CTM's as long as I don't forget not to chase pennies. If I'm correct on a directional forecast, and the underlying moves quickly in my favor, the potential reward for staying in the position is drastically reduced. At that point I must decide whether or not to take profits. Some traders pay bills with their gains. I don't, so 100% of the gains are left in the account. Thus, I'm more interested in frequent compounding than reaching the max potential profit for each position. Unfortunately, it is never cut and dry. Forecasting and re-evaluation are key to this game. That is why I'm always telling people to form an opinion. It's difficult to make money by sitting on the fence. It seems that many people view certain strategies as though they don't have to forecast accurately. This is not the case. My biggest problem with GF's "Optionetics" program is that it frequently implies that DN traders don't have to forecast. I've heard similar things from advisories specializing in OTM credit spreads. (I'm NOT talking about OC's thread) With OTM the forecast is that the underlying will be relatively still and vols will be stagnant or decrease with the lack of price movement. They buy themselves a little more cushion to be wrong in that forecast by accepting more risk.
I was also looking for a short position in metals and this one made the shortlist, but in the end opted for long puts on NUE (similar setup but post-ER).
Looks to me like you are still safe. I'm a little apprehensive about it because I'm too -delta right now.
I cant help but notice that certain someone used to be a fan of optionetics. Perhaps, early in their career.
I'm not a fan of optionetics either but I have to say a number of very good traders got their start thru optionetics...at one time it was the only game in town...I think. There are far more option training seminars (free included) and great web sites now vs just a few years ago.
Nahhh, wasn't ever a fan. Never went to a seminar or anything. Read his book because someone recommended it, and loaned it to me. So I sat down for a couple afternoons and read through it. After I'd finished the book I had decided that the seminars wouldn't be worth going to. I did use optionetics platinum for a little while (6 months or so) because I liked the analysis tools and IV graphs. Once I started using ToS and Ivolatility, that went out the window. I mention him because he represents the exact opposite of how I think options should be approached. I guarantee he's made more money selling "optionetics" than he ever did trading its methods. Two easy ways to make a small fortune in the market: 1) start with a large fortune and 2) convince everyone else that you know how and then make them pay you to learn. He falls in the second category for me. That said, many a trader got their start with optionetics and the guy is a good salesman/businessman. He has taken the "difficulty" out of options. What most novice traders don't realize though, is that if you remove the "difficulty", you remove the profitability.