Wasnt it a limit order? I would think that putting a sep EOM position on for the same credit as a regular october position would be a great thing.
That's a good point I hadn't really considered. I'm still a bonehead for not checking my order properly before hitting the final submit button though .
Hi Cache, Congratulations on your winnnings. I tried to read through several pages but I couldn't locate your criteria..would you mind to share that again pls. Cheers, Manoj
The oil and energy stocks are still taking a beating. I dipped my toes back in with an OIH credit spread and am doing about as good as you are right now with this one .
Yeah, but they can't keep dropping forever. Strong support for oil between $55-60/ barrell. I chose VLO for its volatility and ability to jump back from big declines.
It would be nice to see some quick stabalization and then quick retracement back up above my short . I'm not bailing on it, I'll sit tight and ride it out.
I generally try not to bail on a position like that at what appears to be the worst possible moment. Yeah, I get into trouble sometimes and lose some money. But sometimes you've got to give your positions a chance to work out.
That's what I have learned from some of my recent CTM positions. It is a probability play, I put them on with good probability that they would work out so I will let it go and see what happens (probability cuts both ways though ). Still lots of time before expiration so jumping out now would most likely be a mistake.
Well, I got nervous and rolled my Oct06 SPY 133/136C up to Oct06 134/138C to give me some cushion---just in case. Reduced the overall credit from $1.07 to $0.60. Better some credit than no credit. Cru
Well, in a quick response; I don't trade completely scientifically. I believe that systematically selling credit spreads has a neg expectancy. If you are good at risk management then you can probably make a bit of money, but nothing like 5% a month for three years. Of course that implies that I am more artistic with my trading. But I can give you some of my preferences. I don't subscribe to most of the useless TA. My opinions that involve TA are based mostly on demonstrated s/r. IOW, upward/downward sloping channels aren't nearly as reliable as good ol' fashioned horizontal ones. I don't use any indicators with red/green arrows even though one of my family members sells such software for a living. I do look at fast stochastics. Like Rallymode I use the 5,5,3 more than any other parameters. I do use the simple moving averages. On a daily chart I have the 20, 50, and 200-day permanently there. I pay some attention to relative strength. The rest comes from experience and confidence. I believe in a balanced portfolio and that there will always be weak companies in a strong market, and strong companies in a weak market. This brings up the importance of sector analysis. Don't ignore the business cycle and how certain sectors react to things like interest rate hikes, rising oil prices, etc... Anyway, from there it is all about execution. I will only refer to verticals since that is what this thread is focused on. You might use this as a guideline, but there are many different styles that work, but this might give you a place to start. 1) develop a forecast for the market. Then ask yourself WHY. If you think we are going up from here, why do you think that? Are oil prices going to continue dropping? Are semiconductors going to continue to recover? Did housing bottom out? 2) Find the sector that is the main factor in your forecast. If oil prices are going to continue dropping, then chips are likely to keep rising. You might consider a balanced position like an OIH bear call and an AMD bull put. 3) After you've chosen a setup that you like within the sectors that you highlighted, do a volatility analysis. You want to know if you are going to be +- vega. Don't ignore IV!! 4) Determine how confident you are in your forecast. If you are quite confident, increase your exposure. If you are unsure, then decrease your exposure. With verticals this can be accomplished by moving closer ATM or farther OTM. The rest will be all about timing in the sense that you don't want to pick what is obviously a horrible time to open a position, because that will likely lead to the most horrible close you could choose. Trading is like golfing... if you have a little bit of experience, the backswing sets up the entire shot. In trading, the open determines the success of the position. A good open with give you much more room for error on the close. I've got to go, but if you have more questions, or if I didn't get at what you were looking for, then feel free to ask more questions. Cache BTW, many people wonder if I do any intraday trading. I do, but I'm very selective. There are 1 or 2 people on here that have gotten a real-time sneak peek at some intraday analysis according to Cache Landing. I would suggest to anyone that adopts a trading style like mine that you start getting comfortable with intraday analysis. It will prove invaluable in the future.