Verisimi

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Pekelo, Jan 2, 2007.

  1. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    This journal is the 2007 sequel to my previous one, called Verisimilitude Fund. The rules and the original strategy can be read here:

    http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=72826

    In short I discovered a very simple way how to outperform the market without doing pretty much anything. If you are a fundmanager, that is no small feat. Again, it doesn't guarantee a huge return, all it provides that you will end up a few % higher than the market for that year, so you can have your bonuses. Well, in case the market has a extended selloff, I will try to stay out of it thus remain positive...

    Last year the S&P ended up unexpectedly 13.6% and although I am not an expert, but I would say very few funds actually beat it. The previous journal was started in July and I only managed it actively for 2 months, nevertheless it ended up with 7% in 6 months, which is exactly the half what the S&P did in the whole year.

    Had I got long from the start of the journal and just kept rolling over when the futures expired I would have had the same result (since when I started the market was at breakeven YTD) but in half of that time, thus outperforming the S&P by a factor of 2...

    Lesson learnt, if I want to mimic the index's movement, I have to be long most of the time, except times of obvious pullbacks...

    If you were too lazy to read the provided link, this is an imaginative fund, 16 ES contracts traded for every million AUM, also called unit. Maximum 2 units allowed to be traded, 80% of the money is in CDs giving a 4% safe return and edge over the market.
    Trades are posted in real time, positions can be held for weeks or just for hours....

    The S&P closed 2006 at 1418.3 so 1% gain/loss will be 14.2 ES points. If you did the math, that is no leverage...

    Well, let's go, long 1 unit 1437...

    Godspeed.... :)
     
  2. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Getting out with a very slight gain and going short from 1437.50...
     
  3. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Covering at 1430.50 a 7 pts gain
     
  4. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Long from 1430
     
  5. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Sold at 1431, expecting more down...
     
  6. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Short from 1436...
     
  7. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Covering at 1437.75 and going long...
     
  8. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Selling at 1432.75 and going short..
     
  9. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Covering at 1435.50 and going long...
     
  10. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Selling at 1442.75
     
    #10     Feb 13, 2007