Discussion in 'Journals' started by Pekelo, Jan 4, 2008.

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  1. Pekelo


    New year, new Journal, same rules....

    Long 1420...
  2. Pekelo


    Selling at 1428.50.... nice start for the year...

    I guess this dude was right, overnight we went up to 1432, but I sleep during the night:

    Pekelo (Jan 4, 2008 3:51:31 PM)
    I say at least 10 points upgap for Monday

    The trade was rather easy, because as I mentioned in my ADU thread:

  3. Pekelo


    Long 1394... No SL.
  4. Lucrum


    ES 1356 at the moment.
    I wish I had all the money I've lost from not having a stop. I could probably buy my own island.
  5. Pekelo


    If you read the rules, that is a 3% DD at 1350, and the account was still in the money by 1% because the built in 4% profit.

    I can leave with a 3% DD.... :)
  6. balda


    I know that you are an accountant maybe even a CPA but your journal has similar flaws as marketserfer's. Should you trade REAL money you'd notice that long time ago.
    80% of the fund in CD getting 4%
    20% of the fund reserved for trading ES

    Just to let you know 4% return on 80% of the capital is not the same as 4% on 100% of the capital.

    good luck in your accounting career.

    Edit: Fund has experienced 3% draw down in one week and you are getting same 3% in 52 weeks.
  7. Lucrum


    Just out of morbid curiosity how much is the DD at ES 1310?
  8. balda


    currently ES at 1280 down 8% from entry 1394.
  9. Down around 126pts on this ONE trade. Guess stops should be in place on trades. Oh well, keep holding.. its gotta bounce up !!:p
  10. Pekelo


    OK, time to do some explaining... :cool:

    Nope. The CD gets a 5% interest, but because only 80% of the fund is in it, that's how I got the 4%. Although I am not an accountant, I can do simple math.

    Keep in mind that the purpose of the journal is to show how a small fund could OUTPERFORM the market the SIMPLEST possible way. Guess what? Just in 2 trades and in 2 weeks by missing the first 5% drop of the market, I have already done that!!! :p

    If I don't do ANYTHING from now on just roll over 3 times and stay long until the end of the year, I have already outperformed the market by 9%!!! Why?
    Because the market was already down -5% when I went long and 4% comes from the built in profit.

    So although I was early with going long, I thought I would lock in a sure 9% advantage over the market.
    Why didn't I use a stop loss? For several reasons:

    1. Last year I overtraded the journal. There is really no need for more than a couple of trades. Of course just when I decide to go lazy, volatility picks up.
    2. I didn't expect this much downmoves so quick.
    3. I was expecting a surprise ratecut and I didn't want to miss the surge.
    4. The name of the 'fund" comes from being very similar, mimicking the market's moves, basicly being long most of the time. It only takes a couple if sidestep into cash a year, and the goal is achieved.

    Last year when I got bored with the project I missed out on a big upmove, because I didn't stay long. I decided this year I will stay in longer. (of course there is a disadvantage, as we can see)

    Right now the trade is down about -9%, so the fund is at -5%, which isn't that bad if we think of the market being at -14%. Let's not forget that we still have more than 11 months to go, and according to the rules I might use one averaging down, if desperate times call for desperate measures.

    Of course with real money I would have used stop losses, but this makes the journal more interesting, otherwise I would be beating the market by 15%, and I would probably stop, because really, what's the point?

    Any other questions? Thanks for following....
    #10     Jan 21, 2008
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