We are officially in no man's land. sp 1000 to 1100. We are gonna ping pong like donkey kong so go long, go short but don't abort on a quick juke or puke unless it's a nuke because the volume speaks volumes about the veracity of the velocity. Get it, got it, good.....
Off by 40. The range over the last 2 months was 1040 to 1140. We are still range bound. We need an event to jiggle the nizzle. Fo shizzle!!
Lojanica Registered: Jan 2010 Posts: 428 04-17-10 08:25 PM Quote from shortie: 4/19 Bottom call July 6th at 8:30 am eastern Standard time I am watching. I feel the big move is to be made in bonds. Right now we go HIGHER in bonds. But once the ammo is out a multi-year Secular Bear in Bonds. Some good currency moves too. Euro has been screaming since the "Euro Crisis" peaked. I'll post again when I got something until then have fun and good trading. L
As noted timing is everything. If you can time an inflection point it isn't necessary to get the direction. That will be easy to figure out once at the time nexus. Case in point April 19th and July 6th in the SP500. Now to bonds. Interestingly after I posted re: bonds I read this in Minyanville. Regardless, no matter how you look at things, the treasury bull is nearing its end. Thirty years is a long run! As long as sentiment stays negative on treasuries, there's room for long-dated treasuries to rally. There will be a time to short treasuries, but now does not seem like it. What I am saying is the same: We are nearing the end of a LONG Bull Bond market. BUT timing is everything as I mentioned earlier and the investment world has been way too early on this trend change. Wait for it just like a good joke timing is everything---(nota bene: My current prognostication is that we are far from the beginning of a SECULAR bond bear market but once it hits it will be good for a long run time and percentage wise).
60 yr interest rate cycle: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/interest-rates-60-year-cycle/ Kondratiev Wave http://www.lewrockwell.com/rothbard/kondratieff.gif The theory hypothesized the existence of very long-run macroeconomic and price cycles, originally estimated to last 50â54 years. Compelling evidence of a major inflection point on the horizon complete with asset bubble implosion during Kondratieff (Kondratiev?) Winter. Interest rate peak 1982, confirmation thereof 1984. The point is this is macro not micro and we are waiting for another asset bubble implosion at the hands of 30 y interest rate curve to zero f/b monetization f/b international currency manipulation to prop the shop. Then its game over reset button start over. Unfortunately many times this meant War. Hope not but.....In short, government intervention cripples the market economy, and recession or depression is the painful but necessary adjustment by which the market reasserts itself, and liquidates the distortions committed by the government's inflationary boom. After each depression, the government generates inflation once again, because it is the government's natural tendency to inflate. Why? Quite simply, whoever is granted a monopoly of printing money (e.g., the Fed, the Bank of England) will use that monopoly and print â to finance government deficits, or to subsidize favored economic groups. Power will tend to be used, and the power to create money out of thin air is no exception to the rule. LewRockwell.com by Murray N. Rothbard (1926â1995), the founder of modern libertarianism and the dean of the Austrian School of economics, 1984
BTW My humble apology. I realize the above post was both obnoxious and arrogant. The markets are humbling and everyone will and/or has paid their dues at some time or another. Regards.
Treasury rally continues. Investors sold off Irish and Portuguese bonds Thursday, driving the borrowing costs of both countries to euro-era records and reinforcing worries about the heavy debts some European governments are carrying. No top in the bond market yet. The rally continues. No chance of a bond bear before elections either as monetization will keep interest rates stable as does the "Euro Card" waving. But all that will change at some point. Where to deploy cash? Hard to say. Ags were good over the summer. Metals too. But now as long as we continue to deflate I lean toward cash and the occasional quick trade.
Lemon Socialism and PilsfaldakapÃtalismi-----the term referring to children hiding behind their mothers' skirts after having done something wrong. Gotta love a people that have one word for what ails a society crippled by an insidious malaise. Then again they have volcanoes which easily trump man's manufactured crises.
Euro has been screaming since the "Euro Crisis" peaked. I'll post again when I got something until then have fun and good trading. Euro Rallied hard!!! Bonds rallied hard!!! Metals rallied hard!!! Everything but the USD soared--- Euro, Bonds. metals, equities soared. Go to cash and Wait.