The problem is Chavez will not stop at oil and telecom. He will go much farther than that, he is a megalomaniac. He is aready taking on more power to legislate by decree, bypassing the national assembly. then look for him to beat down the opposition parties. He'll send his goons to break up opposition rallies, rough up opposition candidates, and kill one or two if needs be. Private media will be threatened or closed down if they criticize his government. Smart Venezuelans are already fleeing to Miami. Those with big cash to move out of Venezuela will soon find that they are restricted in the amount of U.S.$ and euro they can buy to take out of the country. New investment will dry up down there, unemployment will go up, and the people will begin to doubt him. Chavez will become more repressive, paronoid, and steal public funds to stash overseas in the event that he has to flee into exile one day. He is safe for now. The oil money is buying him love amongst the poor.
Well yes, Venezuelans are already fleeing, not only to Miami but to the few countries in Latin America whose governments have not being bought by Chavez's oil. In CR the Chavez backed candidate loss in a very tied race, by less than one vote per voting table... Other countries such as Ecuador, Bolivia, and Nicaragua where not that lucky. Now they all have chavist presidents and they are all taking measures to ensure they remain in power, such measures include rewritting constitutions and eliminating any political competitors. In Nicaragua for example one of the favorite candidates, left winged Herty Lewitts died of a heart attack in a very convenient time, since he was taking many votes away from Daniel Ortega, and even though many Nicaraguans believe that his death was not a natural one, there has been no investigation, and it is very unlikely now that Ortega controls all three branches of the government again. The Ortega regime in the 80's was known for political assassinations and the attempted genocide against the Miskito Indians in the Caribbean Coast. Chavez's most powerful weapon for turning elections around the continent to his favor is his oil. He gives lots of oil to his supported candidates in order for them to buy votes. This was specially effective last year when the prices of oil rose to all time highs. It is only natural that once the continent's Superpower [The US] turns it back to the region other political powers will emerge to take it's place and it is very likely that those powers will take their political fuel from those that feel betrayed by the US impossed political, financial and economical systems, and their poor results. As history tends to repeat itself, we should expect the US to start paying attention to the region once again when it's too late to do anything... starting a series of wars and creating instability in the socialist governments that flowered while they where looking elsewhere, in an effort to cause the collapse of such governments through generalize chaos, in order to bring puppets that are friendlier to their cause.
America is still by far the biggest player in the region. All countries south of Florida , except Cuba, receive huge financial and other aid from America. The U.S. presence is alive and well there. American ambassadors are there, so is CIA, DEA, USAID, U.S. Peace Corps and others. America is paying attention there. Beats me why Chavez had to label himself socialist. Socialists are viewed with suspicion. If he wanted to help the poor as he says he does, all he had to do was to give them the subsidized housing, education, healthcare and food stamps, and no one would be questioning his motives. America subsidizes it's poor and does not call it socialism. But let him keep hurling rocks at George W. Remember Noriega from Panama. Bush senior has him locked up in an American jail.
The future of Venezuela: http://www.indcatholicnews.com/zimrecord210.html Zimbabwe is run by a socialist minion of South Africa's leadership who cared so much about their neighbors they exported Marxist revolution. He expelled the white farmers and gave their land to the poor about 5 years back.
Are the chartered flights out of Venezuela running 24/7 yet? A final draft of the law shows Chavez will also be allowed to dictate unspecified measures to transform state institutions; reform banking, tax, insurance and financial regulations; decide on security and defense matters such as gun regulations and military organization; and "adapt" legislation to ensure "the equal distribution of wealth" as part of a new "social and economic model." ... Chavez's supporters deny the law constitutes an abuse of power and argue radical steps are necessary to accelerate the creation of a more egalitarian society. National Assembly President Cilia Flores said the special powers will enable Chavez to enact new laws that "will benefit the people, those who were excluded their whole lives. They are laws for inclusion and social justice." http://apnews.excite.com/article/20070131/D8N0BMOO0.html
Folks, Someone urged me to post my first blog entry which focuses on investing in the Latin American market to this forum. The article on "Regional Risk - Latin America" can be found at: http://hingefire.blogspot.com/ - Greg
I would stay away from investing on any country that's aligned with Chavez... [Bolivia, Ecuador, and Nicaragua;for now] In other countries such as Colombia, Chile, Mexico, Argentina, and Costa Rica... there is no trend to nationalize [in many of this countries the trend is going towards opening markets] But you must keep a close eye on elections, as many Chavez backed candidates are going to be running in the near future. [for instance in Costa Rica and Mexico the Chavez backed candidates lost by very narrow margins] I would also stay away from Panama, as it is an strategical location that Chavez will try to take in the case of a regional war [which can't be ruled out as long as Chavez is around].
Excellent Commentary All .......................................................................................... I have houses in several of these countries...employees...businesses...etc... The poorer countries that are oil importers....whose incomes are $150....$500 per month..... most of their populations will move towards whoever wins in their respective political offices... In some of these countries...the only way to be able to break above the common income ranges is to be employed by the winning political side....They have plastic card IDs stating their political party of choice ...and this is how they get a job...When the political party changes...so do the employees... Winning political office in these countries ...is like winning the lotto...one now has the key to 10% commission on all government building projects...contracts...you name it... In most of these countries...it is opposite the US...the highest paid people work for the government... And the biggest ticket...is to be able to put the countrys government stamp on foreign aid types of loans...this is where some of them gain their wealth.... Chavez has bartered loans above the $50 mark for oil which can be paid in goods produced in the country rather than money....As oil stays above $50...the debt to Chavez gets bigger and bigger... And literally when the political offices are open for voting....you see small bags of food...small planes dropping fliers in poor barrios....big music boom boxes on broken down trucks... For most of the voting population...man it does not matter who or what it is ...as long as they are promised more than they have now...It does not matter if it is left...right...center...it does not matter....and Chavez has the perfect solution for these people... Seeing how less than 1% control over 90% of the wealth...The field is wide open for Chavez.... ....................................................................................... What you can note however is that approximately 2% of the US population control more than 80% of the wealth...however the population is better educated.... One thing is true about Chavez...he has helped a lot of his population...and they are better off than they were before... and at least he does not engage in illegal wars...killing over 800,000 people because of cronyism and oil..... AT LEAST CHAVEZ AINT BUSH/CHENEY !!!!!!!!!!!
Well... when you set the bar THAT low, you make it sound like a good thing... ************ Trivia... After the president of the US which president in the American continent gets the highest salary?? Answer... Nicaragua's If that ain't corruption, I don't know what is.