Samson -- you're not very opinionated, are you? I'm not sure I would just label NLP as nonsense. In its basic form, NLP deals with associations in your brain and what motivates you to do one thing or another. If you change those associations, you can change your behavior. I think there is some truth to that but I'm definitely not into "New Age" stuff. In any event, it really boils down to how you control your thoughts -- which goes back to stuff like Napoleon Hill's "Think and Grow Rich." Regarding confirmation, I still believe it depends on your system. For me, "confirmation" is the indicators, not price. The system works for me. Test your system -- if it works, trade your system. Remember, the only way you rise above the crowd is to think differently than the crowd.
My opinions are based on fact and experience (unfortunately) I have enough NLP certificates to plaster the wall 3 times.
I agree.. I know of a few traders who use revesal system with success. I think the key to this is to incorporate a method that can confirm the beginning of a new trend before entering a trade. There are many confirmation techniques one can use with reversal type system, but it should not overly complicate the system. This guy i know uses just 2 types of candlestick revesal 'pattern' as confirmation.. I only finished about half the book 'trade your way to financial freedom'.. I personally think it's a great book. He is right in a sense that any system can be traded successfully with proper risk control and position sizing..
Samson -- Hopefully you know I'm not trying to get on your case or pick a fight here. I just think there might be some value to NLP. In any event, your input is appreciated!
I thought the "Van Tharp Paradox" was when you get taken in by a crook and help him defraud millions. Anybody remember Maricopa? (I still like VT's book tho) http://www.fraudsandscams.com/Mobley/MobleyNews2.pdf ...Guinn said Mobley paid for himself and his employees to attend seminars conducted by Van Tharp, a psychologist for stock traders based in North Carolina. Tharp praised Mobley's success last year on his International Institute of Trading Mastery Web site, and said he invested his own money with Mobley as a show of confidence. Tharp declined to comment. In an interview formerly posted on the Web site, Mobley described how Tharp's training helped him to curb thoughts of invincibility, "as though whatever I did turned to gold."...
Very interesting thread. I've recently become acquainted with Van Tharps work and it seems very impressive especially since I need to work on exits and psychological factors that he talks a lot about. I am considering going to his day trading course, which he does not teach himself. It is taught by D.R. Barton and Brad Martin. Does anyone know anything about this course or these instructors?
My impression from Van Tharp's book is that he provides many different examples of trading methods/systems and encourages the reader to develop their own method. Trading a methodology similar to Basso might be difficult for a system that wants only to trade 10 times per year, unless you can tolerate the drawdowns that would certainly happen. The keys, IMHO, are to have a positive expectancy and strong money/risk management rules in place so that the top or bottom that isn't, doesn't take you out of the game. I did find it interesting that the random entry method the two of them tested made money with the 3x ATR trailing stop.
Sadly, he might be but he's probably right as well. NLP is to Psychology as Scientology is to Science and Astrology to Astronomy. Putting it kindly, it has more appeal but less validity. Try Steenbarger for real trading psychology.
Samson and I get along ( I think ) but we don't agree on the NLP thing. Correct me if you've changed your mind Samson, but in the past you told me you got burned pretty bad by some NLP stuff. This doesn't mean NLP is bogus. Kiwi, comparing it with Scientology is unfair at best. In ANY field there is much charlatanism, hell, look at the trading industry. I'm not going to try and convince anyone that NLP is the best thing since chunk-style peanut butter. But, it does sort of bother me when you guys say stuff with such utter certainty and sometimes may prevent others from seeking knowledge. I've spent the last year with an absolute creep in the world of self-help and NLP. If it was my only exposure, I might even feel like you Samson. I would urge anyone sincerely interested in behavioral psychology to read something from the developer. Then make up your own mind. NLP is a methodology. No one ever claimed it was scientific. I've seen amazing shift after amazing shift in others and myself, through using the simplist of techniques. I've also seen scam artists bluffing as NLP experts. I invite those that don't know from experience to just say so. If you must, give you opinion, but don't couch it as fact. And for those of you with experience, as Samson has, I invite you to explore the possiblity that others may not have the same experience as you. Thanks to all for letting me speak my opinion. btw- I've done the Van Tharp stuff, it's not bad, its certainly not great. I don't think I'd spend the $$$ again. I also listened to his set of tapes on system development. Truly a gigantic waste of time and money. The absolute best entries are taken BEFORE any confirmation. There is only ONE way to make money buying and selling anything: someone else must buy from you, at a higher price than you paid. And it can be done, I see it every day. It totally goes against most peoples belief systems, against every shred of conventional analysis, and certainly against raw human emotion. It's the very crux of getting at why so few truly succeed in this goofy biz called trading.
LOL. I couldn't resist the scientology/science astrology/astronomy comparisons. I think the big thing is that the folk "isms" have appeal but lack the thing that real science has, "tested truth (currently)" - the idea that everything can be challenged and should be repeatedly challenged with hypothesis/test. I think Van Tharps basic course has merit too - I learned a few things about simplification from it which probably made it worth the money but I think that nlp would benefit a lot from the rigorous application of the scientific method. Much of it could be tested this way and credibility could be gained from that testing. Re entries without "confirmation" ... my favourites have been when I'm a tick from the turn and get 35 ticks profit but my real money is made by taking "confirmed" trades and then getting out for a modest profit - over and over and over again. This is not to discourage those who want to pick the reversal - I need you to turn the market and provide my trade. Its a warm, wonderful, synergistic world out there