I don't believe that there is any reliable way to determine the "value" of a contract unless it has some intrinsic value, in other words, it has to be in the money. I have used Black-Scholes, etc. and they work ok for i.t.m contracts but they suck for o.t.m. Way too many times I have been absolutely correct on the stock movement and lost on the options anyway. Anybody have a contrary opinion that they can back up with a link or a formula or something ?