Couldn't resist one more long near the close, a quick run up is quite possible short term, but market continues looking weak, people are very cautious buying into that bounce so far, so locked quick profits and walked away. Looked at options to park idle cash overnight.. near-term yields dropped so much that just keeping cash with IB is a great option. T-bills for Dec 15 are 2.49% and 3.44% for Jan 3, while IB offers 3.3% without any hustle of commissions. Does anyone know of a historical data source for corporate bonds defaults info?
Just talking out loud...Biotech. You were talking about risk/reward. I like larger companies that have a continuous pipeline (think Pfizer, Gilead, GSK). Companies that will buy/partner with 2nd and 3rd phase trial drugs. A big pop if you are right. Another one is Boston Scientific BSX...Into medical devices. Was talking to a friend about what the US does very good nowadays. The only three things we came up with were; coding, biotech, and ag production...And ag production has moved to other countries with lower cost basis.
Thanks for sharing. Lots of Health Tech stocks are on a move. Those particular ones are very large caps and are a bit slow to my taste, perhaps getting some via options would be a way to trade them. PFE could have been today with a tight stop, BSX maybe. Not both though due to high correlation. All need some time to offer good R:R entry. The other thing US does very well is attracting the smartest and hard working immigrants
Just realized I kept posting into my previous journal.. Here are links: Monday Tuesday 1 Teuaday 2 I will lock the automated trading journal so it doesn't happen in the future. My "sharing job" there is done now.
Last post about rally into the Christmas is a great example how people should not trade of someone else's method without knowing all the intricacies. E.g I'll be out immediately if I feel wrong, might reverse too, and posting here about it won't be a first priority. Stocks were looking strong for a day and then dumped hard which is indicative of what to follow. I was very long in anticipation of a short lived rally. It didn't happen so I closed at the loss. That's opportunity cost, rather large in this particular case due to a tactical mistake. But big money are made on multi-day / weeks moves so it's ok. The key is to get on that move with a substantial size and not to take profits too fast. Tight stops allow to operate at size when the move begins. Might pyramid on a way once in profit. Comes with a low win rate and is frustrating at times, but when big directional move happens those are game changers. I'm heavily short from yesterday's pre-open, we are back to a bear market. Yesterday' stats were telling me we were overdone on the down side after multiday down move, but tape indicates it's just a beginning. PS. Managing positions is my first priority so those posts could be coming days later after action happens. Once again this journal is not to provide tradeable ideas to someone else, but to share what kinda thinking goes into profitable trading. Remember that price is always right, don't fight the price.
There is a nice trend line coming down on the ES 1D chart which has been defining the bear market for me and held this week as well. I was surprised to see the bullish sentiment from a lot of people coming into this week for that reason, yes there was the 50 bps and cooler cpi print, but it seems like that was getting priced in for a while, and if the 1D chart was an intraday chart, I definitely wouldn't have been looking to get long. And if I had been long during this rally on a swing trade, this area would have been a good place to take profits, which you could see big traders systematically doing over the last 2 weeks many times. I think next week will be interesting, people expect the santa clause rally, which makes it a perfect chance to catch them on the wrong side. On the other hand, this dip over the last couple days could provide fuel for a rally next week. Either way I just hope there is decent volume and range because I have the week off from work and would like to do some trading.
We are just using a different method that's all. Happy to hear it didn't shake you out before the dump. For me, we're in a bear market till we see a flush or major higher lows. At the same time I follow many individual stocks that looked perfectly ready for a take off from here for a few weeks. R:R on those is good when it happens, but it didn't. SPX's chart looks to me like might just continue down from here with some pauses till it hits new lows. By now you're probably in the green enough to be able to take a week off
%% SPX [SPY, same] still looks like a down trending bear, this week + most of year. CAT/DOW[DIA. same] still looks like a sloppy uptrend or acceptable uptrend; VALE/ not in that one/ but good uptrend................................................ Due to short week 4 days LOL, if Saint Nick should fail to call \ Bears may come to Broad + Wall\ Street. Stock Traders Almanac poem; looks like its more of a poem than long profit, in SPY\LOL; DIA + CAT could easy finish up this week
Sounds about right. Industrials are a bad short with CAT and DE making new highs. During the Great Depression government started a lot of construction projects to create jobs and value, who knows, maybe this time we will see something similar, especially with some critical industries moving back onshore now. Industrials also brushed off 2000 recession. In 2008 they were making new highs similar to today, while market was down 15-20% and then just fell apart like everyone else. So both scenarios were seen. Fundamental conditions for stocks haven’t changed. Fed is tightening and removing liquidity with no reversal in sight. Yield is still inverted. SPY is probably as much down as it could be in one year after a bull market. Surprisingly to me up till recently 2008 chart and 2022 been very similar. We’re basically at the point when market fell apart back then plus minus few weeks, if someone is into those sorts of comparisons, so I’m keeping my shorts on. In this market, while we can rally, a break would be sudden, perhaps even right after a chart looked convincingly turned bullish on dailies. Low volatility now will act like a loaded spring in that case.