V/MA in after hours: Free money, or giant sucker play?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Rearden Metal, Jul 30, 2008.

  1. Ok, here's one that'll make you scratch your head a bit:

    AXP reported last week, and then dropped significantly on crappy numbers.
    V reported today after the close, and their numbers were solid.
    MA reports tomorrow before the open.

    Right now in after hours trading:

    MA up over 4%
    V up only 1.8%

    You'd <i>think</i> this is clearly an opportunity to put on the pair trade: Long V/Short MA, with the logic that unless MA comes out with numbers that kick the living crap out of Visa's earnings, there's just no way it's going to gap up by more than double Visa's opening gap.

    As I type this V keeps running higher, but it's still only up around half as much as MA, in percentage terms. When a play is THIS obvious, there's usually a catch, and the whole thing turns out to be a giant sucker play. What am I missing in this case? MA does have a larger short ratio (10% to Visa'a 1.4%), and Visa mentioned something about ending some litigation with MA...but these after-hours prices still don't seem to make much sense at all...
  2. Hmmm... Visa now up around 2.8%, while MA hasn't budged. Did <i>I</i> do that? :p
  3. nice creative play.
  4. did u hold it thru that gap up this morning?
  5. lol i also like how one of the few great plays that is called on elite trader only gets my replies and crickets from everyone else.
  6. Uh-oh. MA down more then 12%.
  7. as it stands now...you mean "hooray! MA down more than 9% and V only down 4.5%!"
  8. RMs instinct that something didn't make sense about the numbers was spot on.

    MA is taking a massive dump.
  9. by numbers you mean prices
  10. Yes. The AH price movement RM originally spoke of.
    #10     Jul 31, 2008