http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN11S01T https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/226593/oil-in-bear-territory-short-oil-amp-energy-etfs http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO Trade: With USO at 10.19 April 12.5/14.5 bear call spread for a net credit of at least $22 (bid/ask = $16/$35) Yield = 22/178 = 12.4% in 209 days or 21.6% annualized Prob = 78% Expectation = .78(22) - .1(178) - .12(89) = 17.2 - 17.8 - 10.7 = -11.3 Price.............. Profit / Loss........... ROM % 7.00..................... 22.00............... 12.40% 9.00..................... 22.00............... 12.40% 12.00................... 22.00............... 12.40% 12.50................... 22.00............... 12.40% 12.72..................... 0.00................. 0.00% 13.89................ (117.00)............. -58.50% 14.00................ (178.00)............. -87.60% 16.00................ (178.00)............. -87.60% 18.00................ (178.00)............. -87.60% I'll see if I can get $25 before I settle for $22...below $22 no deal.