Today looks like a day to get short and keep a stop just above yesterday's high. Low risk but high reward potential.
Hi, Why not just draw an uptrendline on this multi yr. chart, wait till it's broken, & then setup your short for the long term. I would do this using a Trader Vic 2B test of top. You probably won't cherry pick the top, unless you watch it every day for the exhaustion gap run & reversal, i.e. the climactic run. However, you could get in it for a very nice longer term position type trade, of the multi month, year variety. I've been waiting, & am watching for this also. Good Luck with Your Trading! God Bless & GFtY! Kelly
watch the euro. im guessing a strong euro is bearish for bonds -- at some point, at least. let me rephrase: continued strength in the euro could/should add up to a bearish case for treasuries. it's a geopolitical play.
Better yet, buy Euro-denominated fixed-income products. (Gilts, Bunds, BGPs, Notionals) Walther, I would be buying bonds now, and selling them on the war news. At least that's what every honcho seems to be lining up to do. I'm buying bonds every day but I'm flat overnight with the exception of the occasional yield curve or calendar spread. Why wait for the war - do you think they are going to be cheaper, especially if stops are being run as you suggest? Buy low, sell high.
To the Bone : I thing that you are right about not to hold overnight. I am only daytrading Bonds now. For the future I am bearish. What kinds of fixed income yields they have in Euro markets? Maybe I should buy some Austrian Bonds. Walter
June Bonds settle 115-19 in the day session, settled 115-12 in overnight sessions ... not bad for risking 4 points on Wed. Today (Thursday) is wait and see. There is a chance for 115-08. Im probing the short side for now, but a break below 115-00 means that this short trade will become a swing trade. I don't know how low it can go, but I see a possibility of June bonds at 113. Thanks, Monsoon. If you hadn't started this thread I would have missed this trade.