Using volume to predict direction

Discussion in 'Trading' started by 1a2b3cppp, Apr 7, 2013.

  1. :D You got me. But there ain't nothin wrong with start & stay simple, we make things complex and get in the way.

    The most robust strategies in the markets are the simplest strategies. Ed Seykota!

     
    #21     Apr 7, 2013
  2. So you are saying price hitting resistance with high volume on the first hit of support and low volume on the second, it is likely to be a double top where price goes back down (as opposed to not being a double top at all)?

    So like this:

    [​IMG]
     
    #22     Apr 7, 2013
  3. As opposed to this?

    [​IMG]
     
    #23     Apr 7, 2013
  4. lcranston

    lcranston

    This may have been true in the 40s, but it's been my experience that there will first be a fakeout in the wrong direction before price makes a U-turn and heads in the expected direction. This rattles people who aren't anticipating it.
     
    #24     Apr 7, 2013
  5. Cool, yes, thank you for mentioning that. I found that study in my charting program but I had no idea what I was looking at.

    I have three different cumulative delta studies:

    Cumulative Delta Bars - Ticks

    Cumulative Delta Bars - Up/Down Tick Volume

    Cumulative Delta Bars - Volume

    I've attached a chart with all three. Let's discuss how these can influence our trading decisions.
     
    #25     Apr 7, 2013
  6. lcranston

    lcranston

    I hesitate to say yes since you seem to be asking something else. Given that you've been doing this for so many years, this can't be anything new to you.

    Take a look at the NQ reaction to the NFP Friday morning. Pretty good volume as price hits the first support level, then a little less when it bounces down to the next, then BIG volume when it hits the third support level (buyers rushing in to a greater extent than they did the first two tries). Then a reversal, then a test on lower volume (sellers pretty much done), then another reversal, this time with legs (note that this last also breaks the trendline that begins with the first trades off 2765).

    No indicator is necessary, though the trader is always free to use one if he needs to. Whether or not it provides him with any additional and useful information that he doesn't already have is another matter.
     
    #26     Apr 7, 2013
  7. Yes by starting to ignore you, I could.
     
    #27     Apr 7, 2013
  8. My current style of trading has nothing to do with volume, though, so this is kinda new to me.

    Would you mind posting a chart of that?
     
    #28     Apr 7, 2013
  9. This is GREAT...

    So every time you try to call the top...>BUY

    every time call the bottom with the star....SELL

    And if you see an increase in volume, you know it means more volume....and that's about it. one day 1,000,000....next day 900,000....next day 10,000,000,000.....next day 700,000....

    people like to say....OK, volume is here so they will DEFEND this level......maybe, maybe not...

    you can find tons of examples where they assumed what the volume meant...and was wrong...

    so I just get in BEFORE the big volume......d'uh
     
    #29     Apr 7, 2013
  10. PACMAN1

    PACMAN1

    Excellent reading of the market and the relationship of price and volume.
     
    #30     Apr 7, 2013