late report I made a little on on mvw lost a little on ryl, I did not see too much to trade when I looked at the scans so I made about 10 - 20 dollars net on the scans.
I asked Realtick if it would be possible to have a realtime list of the stocks that came into the various scans during the day, whether they were later thrown out of the scan or not. This would help when looking back at the end of the day to see the success rate and also help in the annoying habit of throwing out stocks just as you go to check back on them. I find as others have mentioned that the scan seems to pick stocks up after they have already had a good move and would like to check later and maybe buy on a pullback but when the stock does pullback and no longer meets the criteria it is thrown out of the scan. They said that they thought it was a good idea and would speak to Tony about it, but later got back to me and said the programming was too complicated
Your question is like asking: "Of all the stocks that appear on the 'Near 52 Week High' TAL chain, what percent break the 52-week high and score big and what percent don't?" Breaking the 52 week high can be measured, but "score big" cannot because your version of big might not be my version of big. If you are happy with .30 and take it, then it was a winner for you. If I have a target at .80 and it hits .50 and turns around, it was a loser for me. It's all very personal. So to figure this out for YOUR personal style of trading, you would have to do it on paper and measure the percentage -- but it would only apply to you. I can tell you that using three specific scans, along with my own discretion (I take probably 1 out of 10-20 offered), and my own specific risk and money management method, I am getting 75% winners with Oz scans. Now, if you took them all, I can assure you it would not be that high. If you took the wrong ones, it could be 25%. Like I said, it is so personalized and discretionary that you cannot generalize. Dave
I intend to write my own software that databases each signal, identifies support and resistance areas, calculates r/r for each support area, watches for entry opportunities, and brings up a popup window similar to the RealTick order entry that will be preloaded with the trade. I don't have any time frame to complete this. My primary focus right now is learning to trade. Once I get more consistent, I will start coding again. Mike
Right now, I feel that the scanner gives you/me "just enough" stocks to look at. I could potentially program a ton of filters into it, but I will potentially miss some great setups. I'd rather see as many as come up right now than miss some. I rather use my eyes as the discretionary final filter than a programmed one. My scans are exclusively available to RealTick subscribers. This was the only way I could offer the most reliable performance for a very economical add-on price ($20.00). Yes I know that. My post was saying "Trend reversal" not reversal day regardless, it is a much more advanced trading philosophy. You will be amazed how many traders don't get this one. They are just scared to death of it. Anyhow, I will be the first to admit that these setups require more experience and discipline. LOL, you are giving me wayyyyyyyyyyy too much credit I think we should all be suspicious of examples that are cherry-picked. Although most of my 116 round-trip trades over the four weeks in the book the Stock Trader came from my constant watch list, I'd say at least 25% of them came from my scans. No cherry-picking there. Anyhow, as others have explained better than me, the scanner only serves as an alerting tool. The reason I used the dating comparison before is that I think most intelligent man will agree that a computer cannot pick your soul-mate if you keyed-in everything that you'd like her to be. Why? Because "beauty" is in the eye of the beholder. It is the same thing with stocks. You may see a setup as unattractive while another trader loves it. I.e., the scanner is far from a mechanical system. Discretion is still needed. Yes we have to do some work. Look up the ticker that's on the alert. If we like it and can trade it good, If not then we will look at the next one. I love this quote. Can I use it in the future? I can't promise a date, but if things move along then your wish will be granted Let's go back to dating Suppose you know that you like thin blond women. If you entered that into the computer, you'd eliminate at least (a guess) 80% of the world population. Is it better than random? I think it is unless you want to bother with the 80% of the population that doesn't answer your preference. I will be in Vegas next week (as a guest not a speaker), and I'm speaking at Daytraders USA on 5/11/02. If anyone of you happens to be at either event and has questions for me, please feel free to ask. Speaking of trading conferences, I will be at the next Expo in Anaheim. I am working on my speaking program right now. I will take the risk and ask the traders here if there is anything special that they want me to cover. If you do, please email me. tony@tonyoz.com Thanks, Tony
davealex, Glad to hear they are working out so well for you. Any type of backtesting of course involves additional criteria, but that doesn't mean it is not worthwhile. My understanding is that Tony has specific entry criteria for each scan, eg. rises above yesterday's close. It would be pretty simple to do a distribution analysis of the maximum moves +/- over the next hour, day or whatever. Or put together a trading system. I don't believe the actual rules of the system matter too much. The point would be to apply the same logic to stocks from the scan list and to randomly selected stocks and see if the end results were materially different. It would seem to me if the scan lists actually identify high potential candidates, then they should produce on the aggregate a higher return than a randomly selected list.
Actually, these are alert trigger event and not entry points. Chapter 7 in my book covers the entry points based on the intraday chart. So the alert trigger point is based on the daily chart. Then I base my entries on support and resistance of the intraday chart. For instance, shorting Usual Suspects intraday patterns although it shows up on a bullish scan. The same thing goes for buying Knock downs based on intraday chart patterns although the scan is bearish. Consequently, these scans are not made for automated trading.
Short ADRX (Sky Scraper) Entry 45.18 Target 44.00 Stop 45.40 I took this because it broke the base of the descending triangle. No sooner than I took the trade, it rocketed. I did not have an automated stop loss set. By the time I bailed it was 45.72. OUCH What I did wrong. 1.) Should have waited for the day low to get penetrated. 2.) Used the ARCA stop-limit. Would have gotten an earlier fill. Lesson for the day! Should have stuck with BRCD. I still like the support around 22.It has touched here 4 times. Mike