Long PPDI (Usual Suspects) Entry 26.02 Target 26.87 Stop 25.90 Is this price target too conservative? Mike
RE: PPDI Sold at 26.82. Guess I'll find out if my target was too conservative. I would really like other opinions. Thanks, Mike
I think price targets short change you unless you're unloading part or your position. Trailing with primary intraday resistance is the way to go, and if you get an explosive move in your favor, sell if it crosses below the low of a 30 or 60 minute bar. On excessive moves you can almost always get back in lower when they sell off to fair value. I think limiting your upside is crazy unless you have consistent high percentage winners.
BullFighter, That was a nice play, don't second guess it. I think really you are asking the wrong question when you ask if the profit target is too conservative. What you should be asking yourself is what is your time frame. If you are strictly daytrading, then a $.75-.80 move is a nice piece of work. You are highly likely to get a pullback that retraces much if not all that move, unless you have a big trend day. If you are prepared to hold for a few days, then maybe it is too conservative. In that case I agree with the previous post that you should be looking at the action rather than a number to get you out.
hey good discussion above as that was the point of this thread. Good day today and I would have to say that I like the fact that these scans find stocks that can move. That doen't mean they will and it doesn't mean you are going to make money. But trading this way is a bit more fun than trying to scalp has been for me. Plus on good days you make good money without getting a headache. gild showed up on a scan this morning. I had alread made a good money in my other trading and I was not sure if I wanted to take risk so I bought 200 at 33.56 around 9:38 put in a tight stop stock went in my favor (small) I moved my stop up to breakeven and I got hit out at 33.60. OK trade because I followed my plan even though it was sort of a fairy plan. Shorted 500 Ibm 83.02 only got a partial. good sign usually. NOt sure if it was on a scan but it was year low or some big low when I first tried to get a short off. ( i did not get bullets) I tried to put in a stop and forget it but when you see IBM move 50cents to a buck in your favor past trading experience said take it. so I did I got out at different spots for about 350 dollars profit. I really could commit to holding the last part of my trade for more than a buck. (OK I know I need help here but it was oversold. ) next trade makes me love these scans. I bought 400 cmcsk in a conslidation at 28.85. around 13:30. watched the trade move up based on good news?. tight stop under consolidation. sold 200 @29:15. why b/c the profits were killing me. (need work). When we got near my near term target of 30 I tightned my stop to 29.88 and got hit. mean while I had 400 plab from 34.12 at 14.14. risky entry and I had no idea where to put my stop but I like the chart and the market at the time. I was ready to sell on any problems. But I did not have any. Sold 34:21 to allow me to take risk on other half. I know I need work here but nothing will breed success like profits and success with these scans. sold 100 at 34.49 because it was near 50 and sold the other part at 34.90 because I was taken out after tighten stop after new highs. finally had atvi. Now I see what happen I only got a partial and on the other part I got triggered after I was out of the first part. tuned out that I thought I made 37 x 200 but I only made 9 total on the whole trade. I guess it is hard to trade futures and scalp and oz all at once. atvi,plab,cmcsk was usual suspects alert although I am sure i saw cmcsk more than once. Never theless good day. needed a little more discipline nevertheless today I think my trading adding a little to my profits but I want to get to the point where I just let my stops work for me with these scans. But perhaps I internally know that I only want to do that when I am following the daily trend of the market. I had one of my best overall days in a while and I think the diversion of hunting for stocks sits well with me psychologically. discipline b- stock selection b+ I am sure I could have picked more. dictated but not read (I used to love to get those letters) I am just saying I am not rereading this right now nor spell checking as a reltive showed up.)
I had to wait for the cable company today from 9-1 only to find out that the poor #$@ messed up the schedule and are not going to show up for another day Anyhow, FWIW Mike, This trade that you put on today is what I classify as an ADVANCED intermediate level trade! Most traders are not very comfortable taking a trade like that one. Let's look at the following charts to illustrate this point. Images taken from http://www.tonyoz.com/usual.htm <img src="http://www.tonyoz.com/sc1a.gif"> Easy to identify first day of move. Breakout from consolidation and volume confirmation. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- <img src="http://www.tonyoz.com/sc1b.gif"> The following three days action. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- <img src="http://www.tonyoz.com/sc1d.gif"> trading the above setup requires a lot more experience than the consolidation breakout type of trade. Here we look for a reversal of the trend rather than continuation of the trend. Yet, a long position is taken in a stock that is up from the previous close. The EXPERT LEVEL is achieved by taking trades "against the scans" This means shorting Usual Suspects and buying Knock Down (buying stocks that are down from previous close and shorting stocks that are up from previous close). For Example, let's look at the next chart. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- <img src="http://www.tonyoz.com/sc2e.gif"> ORCL on Knock Down Scan the entire trading day. It tanked in the am. It was RED all day. Finding a good intraday reversal pattern proves to be very profitable Take a look at TYC yesterday --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- <img src="http://www.tonyoz.com/tyc430.gif"> The stock was down big and on the Knock Down scan for four days in a row. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- <img src="http://www.tonyoz.com/tyc430b.gif"> As you can see TYC was down sharply from the open then reversed. However, I did not have an intraday reversal pattern on a 1-minute chart. No double bottom, no round bottom, no reverse H&S. We actually had a regular H&S form between 10:15 and 10:40 or so. The stock went up to over 19 later. Anyhow, I'm just trying to point out how many different ways the scanner can be used beside the obvious "easy setups" I am finding out lately that I have subscribers to the scanner who don't even trade stocks. They trade index futures and options. They use the scans to watch the money flow and get a feel for the market. Many of the questions I received last month are from future traders ... and in all honesty, I don't know what to tell them sometime, because I haven't used the scans the way they do Trade Smart! Tony Edit: I made this post very late and I hope it makes sense. I'm too tired to read it. Going to bed now.
Tony, Thanks for the comments. The support from you and the other ET posters really helps. I can't tell you all how much I appreciate it. The PPDI trade was not exactly a classic Reversal Day Trading Strategy because it was not trading down from the open. However, when I saw it pull back from the high, I put it in a secondary chart and watched it out of the corner of my eye. I was intensely watching GILD since the opening. When I saw PPDI move, I took my attention off GILD. When I finisned entering PPDI, GILD had broken out and I missed it. Oh well, I caught PPDI. If PPDI had been trading down from the opening (page 143 of your book), at what point would it show up on the Usual Suspects scan? I find the reversal strategy easier to enter on US because many times the price is breaking out to new highs and I don't know how to calculate a good price target. Also, many times the the price has moved up quickly from the open and it does not pullback. I must admit, it is often tempting to just jump on board anyway. This is how I felt yesterday when GILD starting moving up and I missed it. I must keep reminding myself to TRADE THE PLAN. I also am very reluctant to hold positions overnight, especially longs. Would it had been wise to sell half the PPDI position at the target and hold the rest overnight? I saw TYC on the reversal day. I was tempted to take a position at 11:10 at ~16.50. I felt that I missed the good opportunity to enter at 10:48 at ~16.00. I just started reading The Stock Trader. I'm glad to see that on the first day no trades were placed. Sometimes the want to get in the action can cause risky trades to be taken. It's hard to stand on the sidelines while all the other kids are playing on the field. Mike
Who is this? <img src="http://www.tonyoz.com/dude.gif"><img src="http://www.tonyoz.com/ball.gif"> Gene Weissman Lieber & Weissman Sec., L.L.C. gweissman@stocktrade.net
Short PHSY (Usual Suspects) Entry 29.15 Stop 29.40 Target 28.00 PHSY opened at 29.94, traded quickly up to 30.37, pulled back to 27.26 and then traded up and established a range between 29.27 and 29.78. It broke down through the range at 10:45 on a volume spike. It pulled back up into the channel and broke down again at 10:56. I took a short position. It traded down to 28.40 and then pulled up. I bailed at 28.82. I was also watching OVER for a reversal. It never happened. Went to lunch and never came back. Mike