Since we are all going to be watching the money flow in via this new thread, I have a question. Yes, I have read your book. 1. When scanning for stocks, whether with your system or other filtering systems, we find percentage movers, up and down, near "lows" or "highs" or "breakouts" and "breakdowns" - simple enough. Do you assign other crieteria with in the system to reflect current marekt data? If a candidate looks great, will you not take advantage of the opportunity? (if not, what are you basing the decision to stay out, on?) 2. Our "break out" and "filter" traders, have had to spend more time and are finding fewer "high probability" set ups, is that your finding also? I'm hoping that with a better understanding of your tactics, that all of us can become better traders. As you know, I may not always agree with your style, but I am always willing to expand my horizons. Hope to see you in your new "digs" soon!! Don
I apologize to the female community in advance. Don, Let's say that you are searching for a soul-mate. You decide to use a match making service online. So you put the following data in: I like my soul-mate hair color to be X and eye color to be Y and height to be Z and body type to be .... and ethnicity to be ... and religion to be ... Now, imagine that you have 500 gals that answer your criteria. Imagine that you sit in a room in which they are all running full speed in and out of. You can only stop one of them at a time and pick her brain. When you do that, you will miss the opportunity to talk to the other ones. In short, out of the 500 or so that run in this room, I'm sure most of us will find someone we'd like to know better. It is the same thing with real-time scans. The candidates all meet our initial criteria. Now, it is time for each one of us to look at the individual ladies and see who we want a longer-term relationship with. And yes, unlike most prop traders, I will take some of them to bed with me j/k The skill needed here is efficiency (time management). How much time are you going to spend with a lady before you know that she is not your type? In other words, how long must you look at the chart before you say, no trade here, next! Or how long will stay in a relationship (position) before seeing that it isn't going in right direction? My Scanner generates great potential trades on a daily basis, but it is simply impossible to capture them all. The entry and exit strategies and money management system each one of us have also play a major role. And as I said in a previous post, New Kid on the Block stocks and Power Trader stocks often trade on their own without any regards o the market. As we speak, run a 5 minute intraday chart for the following stocks Vs. the NDX USAI, EXPE, WBSN, SIAL, ORLY (all power trader setups) Or you can run MGG, MCO, ITT, MIK Vs. the Dow today. Now to answer your questions, 1. My individual trading system keeps me out of a trade. Overall market direction is always important. 2. "High Probability" is totally something that adapts to market conditions, type of stock, and time of year. Consequently, position sizes, overnight exposure etc. are constantly changing. In short, I still find enough high probability setups. My problem is that I have been getting more picky over the years. (JK- this happens to many of those who look for Mrs. perfect for so long that they will not settle now Tony
This makes sense.....it has been my observation, with our "filter" traders, that they generally get maybe 5-10 (what they call) decent set ups per day...which is ok,and works for them. Does this mean that their criteria is more limiting, or is that you like to see a "bigger universe" (of stocks, not ladies!!), and then make some mental decisions at that point. I don't expect details, I know you have a class and your scanner (to everyone: I happen to think Tony is one of the "good guys" ...and I don't say that about many)....I'm just trying to get an idea of the tactical differences....if you care to elaborate, great...if not, no problem... Don
You can see the total results per scan in the attached file. This market minder window shows up to 9 alerts and if there are more than that, you can drag the chain to a minder and see all alerts. In the version I have now, you cannot drag the individual stocks, but in the next release, you will be able to drag each ticker right out of this minder. In the future, users of the Oz Scanner may have much more control, but I'm not going to make any promises now. I am also working on producing educational materials to further enhance the understanding of scans and how to use them. Tony
I had an interesting day watching my equity swings on small shares. I new when my three open trades all pushed to equity highs that that was more than likely the high of the market as well. It seems to happen all the time when I have a few open positions which in the past was not normal for me but I have experimented with it. I new I should dump some shares but I let my stops take me out and I would up with about 50% less money. Now for my self eval. Had better discipline than in past. Still not quite good enough but I was mostly long and I saw that the market was weak. In fact I made money shorting the futures but I will not address those trades in this space. I was in buy bargain mode. (I normally am a shorter even during the big bull run because that gap em up at night and we shorted all day) First trade Bought 400 shares of Vesa @ 49.50. Powertrader and new highs and looked ready to pop though the 50 cent level so I took it. My Real tick said it was varian semiconductor. I figure semis were due for bounce, this stock seemed to be on sort of a breakaway gap. Although at the time I saw on the chart that 50 was good resistance. Sold 200 at 49.68. and watched it go to close to 50 I put in a 50 cent trailing stop and though I was in good shape. At 10:00 I got stopped out and filled at 49.3 Sort of impulsive trade ---risky entry-- bad management Should have entered earlier or later but not right before 10:00. questionable about selling half quick. But old habits die hard and selling half also coincides with when I started to make a good living trading so perhaps it is the way I am wired. I will have to work this into my risk reward plan. I will post following trades on next post
Buy 100 Pxlw at 10:70 at 10:09:48. I felt this was a stupid trade when I made it I got a poor fill as I paid through a level on a thin stock. I was uncomfortable about the trade so I dumped it about three minutes later at 10:58. I had no plan it was an amusement trade so I dumped it. Bought 200 wbsn 25.39 at 10:20:17. Almost went to 400 as that is what I usually trade unknown stocks with but I was afraid to embarrass myself today so I was conservative. As I bought it I wrote down my plan. Stop 65 cents lower. Target a little below resistance on daily chart at 27.85. I saw this trade as the consummate oz trade from the get go. By the way I checked his web site never read the books. (That may have to change). This trade reminded me of when I was playing sports. I saw the play in my mind and believed it. Unfortunately I over managed it. As it went up I changed 100 to 25.95 and 100 to break even. .95 was the number I wrote down but I think I actually put it .91. I checked it was .92. However later when the market started tanking I tightened up stops sold 100 at 26.20 and 26.70. That 70 sale looked like a good one until the end of the day. Bought 200 ATVI at 30.56at 10:42 when it looked good to b/o funny I was never a breakout trader over the last 4 years although I do like to sell through lows under certain conditions. I realized after I bought it my risk was a bit high so I found a bs stop below a five minute low at 30:14. My target was 31:9. I was uncomfortable with the stop so I sold 100 at 30:32 at 11:13 and kept the other 100. At 12:58 a tighten trailing stop got sold at 30.17. I did not like the chances of longs this afternoon. Bought 100 expe at 78:65 at 11:42. I was expecting 56 and again I let this effect my strategy. I liked my entry into a consolidation area on a one minute chart but I was not willing to put the stop in a good place so I got popped at the low tick before it took off at 78.40. Bad trade. bought 200 zran at 38.55 at 11.54 stopped at 38.36at 12:06. Now I was thinking the market was weak but I had to buy pecs out of mid day consolidation. Because I would have been ticked if it went up without me. good entry at 22:65 at 14:06.34. I watched it go up for a while pulled up my stop to about break even and got sold out at 22:66 on a ridiculous little low volume selloff while I was trading futures. I could not believe they brought it down on nothing after getting it up over 23 dollars on some decent trading. It was squirrelley around the point but I felt giped. (I know I am supposed to understand that is the market but no point in denying my emotions.) conclusions. I need to trade this style with much wider stops than normal. Because I seem to get caught in little low volume stop runs. Better to use disaster stops and then trade out to my positions on my own. However this will require real emotional commitment to Tony's style off these scans. Also I should be happy that my one good trade made me somewhat profitable as I was buying into a down market. Discipline- improving so I will move up my d- to c-. (Hey this is new for a scalper). Stock selection - B Prognosis - could be legitimate style. Of course I will have to wait for pullbacks and up my size. I like the fact that some of the trades had real followthrough. Downside. Hard to keep track of all the stocks that look promising but are not ready for entry. 20-30 cent stops seemed to get hammered. This was usually fine on the nyse stocks I traded. P.S. I think these were all powertrader scans except one might have been new kids. my wife wants the computer here at home so I will conclude for now
I just started using the Scanners two weeks ago. I've mostly been tracking them on paper. I was hoping that someone would start this thread. I will find it most hopeful if others could discuss why certain setups are not desirable and which ones were. Tony, thanks for your explaination of ACTL. I feel better knowing that you didn't take the trade. Mike
I was reviewing what I wrote and I actually made money on Atvi so that second sale must have been at 31.17 not 30.17. I know I made a few bucks on the trade in total. Also if anyone wants to suggest a format or send me a copy of a spreadsheet with which I could keep track of these trades --- it might make this column more informative. When I was scalping a lot I could make 100 trades a day so I never wrote my trades down.
I'm really curious, I see it hitting the BB. What was the technical basis for a 45.25 stop? Was your target the 200 day MA ($38.47)? Thanks, Mike