He answered my questions.. He is obviously risk averse and well aware of it.He could live with a 5 percent drawdown on the full notional.. He's not quite sure what risk reward works for him.. Due to his parameters,it clear he can't sell puts naked. My question was asked to see what his tolerance was for buying premium,I.e spreads, be one leg ITM/ATM/OTM
OP, this is an example of how to hedge. It showed me with my "tastytrade" knowledge, that the OPTION world is very big and I could barely follow him as to how and why he hedged the portofolio like this
yes, because in 10 years your 400k will have been eaten up quite a bit by inflation. I once read somewhere that being in a cash position is the hardest. attack or retreat
I'm probably more risk-averse than most people on this forum. However, I try to balance the risk of losing money with the risk of losing opportunity. He made this post because he feels that he is missing the upside the bull market of the last 10 years has delivered. I don't think it would be responsible of me to tell him that he should just plow it all in, give into the FOMO, he's got 20 years before he needs the money anyways, market has always gone up, just do it...the "how would I like to tell my son, daughter, wife someday that their inheritance could have been 8x larger, but I was too scared to invest it". But on the other hand, I think it's necessary to take some risks. Even if one has more money than they will ever need...why not try to grow it? I think what could happen, especially if you live in a high tax state and the money is not in a tax-sheltered account, once you have a large gain on a stock or ETF, you won't think of selling it because you won't want to pay the taxes.
Twenty years ago I was in precisely your position, with precisely the same questions, and at precisely the same market levels near all time highs. I asked an experienced options broker if it would be a good idea for me to sell puts. No, he replied. Because shit happens. I didn't listen then, and shit happened, as in time it always will. It has also been my experience that threads like this, with traders advising a newbie to engage in selling puts, is a good sign that we are at or near a market top. Good luck.
While I fully agree that selling ATM 1 year S and P vol for Apx 5 percent of Spot is revolting, I think your broker was off base in his assessment of selling puts when he said it.. Chek out Goldman's study,The art of put selling ,a 10 year study... Regardless,the OP wants to limit his drawdown so naked vol is out..
Dang, that sixfigureinvesting link is very interesting ET180! Any reason to doubt his numbers? Seems to be CRUSHING the S&P at much less overall risk. I thought edges were hard to come by!?!
I think he's legit. He has been continuously updating that page with all his trades for years. His system is fairly simple and based on Ned Davis 4% rule (although he uses a different percentage that he does not disclose). I exchanged several e-mails with him on another forum and I think he's honest an honest person, not trying to sell anything, but willing to help others out which is why he made the post.
Sorry, there is no portfolio that will have a max long-term drawdown of 5%. I'm talking in real terms here. 100% t-bills had a -48% dd in real terms during 1933 all the way to 40's period. 100% bonds were down in real terms during the 1940 to 1980 period (-57% max dd). Thats 40's years without real gains. You think you are being defensive sitting on cash, but its an illusion due not taking into account inflation as well as the tail risk of even more inflation not coming back to bite you. A defensive portfolio like 20% stocks, 60% 10y bonds and 20% gold has an historical max real drawdown of -25% and it recovered from that drawdown 10 years later. You would think that by decreasing equities and adding stuff like T-bills or more bonds, that would help but no, it doesnt. 10% stocks, 70% bonds and 20% gold has a max dd of -30%. I would advise you to learn more about investing, perform historical tests and portfolio design because your mistake is very common. People think having equities is risky but sitting on cash is even riskier