First, I have annexed these posts here because I made thready in wrong area. Second, I would like to make clear that my comments regarding the insurance industry were meant to be examples, not indications of what I will be doing on Monday. For me at least, and I need to get over this, I feel guilty even thinking about this stuff right now. But, as I said, I needed to get my mind off of things for a while and that was the impetus of the post. As far as responding to the question regarding the insurance companies, I will respond if/when I need to clear my head again. I am a new trader (one month) and I am having a hard time figuring out how to use news. (I trade NYSE stocks). There are a number of issues I would appreciate opinions on. 1) With news that is widely disseminated, it will be factored into the opening price. From there, how does one know if the specialist will then take it higher or lower? Can one make any deduction based on the time and sales at the end of the previous days action to ascertain if the specialist was long or short going into the session? 2) Lets say there is news that is not widely disseminated. For example, I follow the insurance industry, especially property and casualty. Lets assume that this abominable tragedy did not take place, there has been ongoing court activity regarding certain laws about automobile insurers. A decision came out at the end of August, to take effect Sept. 1, which was very beneficial to insurers in New York. Yet, when I followed Allstate insurance, which writes by far the most policies in New York, there was no effect on the stock. Therefore, should I assume that if news comes out and is not reported anywhere, that it wont have much of an impact? The decision was later stayed and will be reheard at the end of the month. 3) As far as Monday, I have decided (MY OWN PERSONAL DECISION - lets not have a debate) not to short stocks on Monday. (Also, I believe there will be a "collusive" effort to keep stocks from completely tanking after the retail sales are in, as well as the effect of the waiver of buyback rules which will hold up stocks). Where was I..... Oh yeah. As an ex-personal injury attorney, I knew right away which companies would be hit the hardest. For example, Certain companies have multiple exposure (prop and casualty, business interuption, workers comp, reinsurance, aviation)I also recognize which insurance companies might get hit unproportionally because of limited exposure. (ie: Progressive, Allstate). Also, certain companies are SHOULD get hit for reasons that have not been reported, that is, asbestos litigation. This has bankrupted many insurance firms and some companies reserves are low for this. (Trust me, everyone is getting sued for this). My questions here are 1) Can one assume that the smart money will be buying the insurers with limited or no exposure and 2) Things such as future litigation...Is this something that will be factored in as well or because it is a future, contingent event, this is a factor that would only be considered by a long term investor. 4) Similar to one of my ramblings above, where one anticipates a gap up, is there a general rule how to play that. For example, defense oriented firms or security firms. Finally, I mean no disrespect in addressing these meaningless topics at this time. But after the mental torture of the last week, I felt compelled to focus on something else, for at least a little while.
This is how to use news.... DON"T!!! It's too hard to figure it out, there are too many crosscurrents, too much to figure out. It's almost always better to let other people figure it out and you can just follow supply/demand like a good trader.
Praetorian2, I agree with your strategy to play the news. I like playing stocks that have news but I don't form an opinion about that news. I let the stock tell me what to do. The nice thing about trading news though is that liquidity and range usually are dominant. Leland