The ATM strike with Spot at 2926 is 2925 The 2925 Straddle is 47.05 The 1 SD implied move is Straddle price 47.05 x 1.25 = 58.80 Make any more sense ?
I use IV to see how much more or less I'm paying on premium, but that's about it (compared to HV). Like you said, I don't see much point for directional plays using IV or any given range. If looking for range, you'd have a better idea looking at OI and volume.
Yeah, there is also a proof: if IV was really determining an expected range, then the IV would be decreasing to zero when the stock price is nearing the end of that range. But the opposite happens: once the stock price reaches that “range”, poof, now IV is x times higher and we have a new completely different expected range that’s even wider then previously. So even logically this is bs by default.