Here is an article which discusses using liquidity infusion flows from the Fed and US Treasury to time near-term market moves. Is this methodology viable in your opinion? https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-...-gold-if-bond-yields-fall-further?post=286763
It's clear that given recent declines in yields, there's a lot more lower adjustments in risk assets. It's also clear that the most vulnerable are Dow, Russell, and Gold. This is one way to read the recent action in the bond market. Not sure if I agree though. The bond market has always been the real indicator which we have learned to trust over the past 5 decades of being in the market. This is the market that is attuned the closest to the real fundamentals. And right now the bond market is telling us a readjustment will be happening soon in the stock markets, whether they like it or not, or even whether they know it or not. This has always been true. But, the timing could be wrong. Pensions are spread across fixed income and equities, so generally speaking, when one goes up, the other goes down. Treasuries are the main reference asset for valuations across the entire fixed income space, from AAA to junk. FOMC purchases are always affecting yields, but I think the pros trading CTD, cash bonds, rate futures, and related are well aware of that influence, i.e. it's priced in. Can check it here... https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/...ities/treasury-securities-operational-details They watch the fed like hawks and have quants that make quants look bad -- doing stuff with treasury basis, implied repo, OTR, CTD, and god knows what else... I think the article is talking about just a straight price action read on bonds, and that they are pricing in the important stuff like new issues, auctions, fed announcements, or corporate actions on bond issuance (forward yields). Further, the recent rally off the lows (decline in yields) has removed some support for risk assets.