I like to fly my toy drone over the TSLA factory and count the new cars out in the lot waiting to get shipped out 3X/day. I pay some nuns that run an orphanage in China to do it over there for me too.
There is a Frenchman who inspects cocoa plants across Ghana and makes a killing selling that information to hedge funds in the US. The story crossed my table a while ago but I remember he expanded his products of choice greatly since. Quality alternative data are incredibly valuable. If you don't see that but are interested I can send you some links to research. I work in this space.
Largely on macro fund flows. then on revaluation of news (like positive earnings) Then on fear and greed (irrational) with computers 1 has largely been arbed out. 2 has diminished a lot. (Back in Ben Graham’s day, a mis pricing could last for months; now it lasts for minutes). 3. might be exacerbated
I am sure that you and your amazing technical analysis skills can predict a random walk, you should write a book. I'll be your biggest fan.
I can't ... predict something that doesn't exist. Well I suppose I could, but what's the sense in that?
The long-term is simply more uncertain than the short-term. That idea is apparent in option pricing. Because many of the factors that drive long-term price movement are not observable, I don't think AI will ever be able to overcome that. Short-term, there are fewer factors that significantly move price. Perhaps, those factors tend to be more observable and quantifiable as well such that AI could provide an advantage...possible, but not my area of expertise.