Using Benign Relative Strength- My 09 Buys*

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, Jan 7, 2009.

  1. Well, it had to be done. At some point I had to buy something for 09'. I've been in a mexican standoff with stocks, a jilted lover perhaps. I haven't felt a great need to chase anything, once you get under the hood there's not a lot of good stories out there. Year after year we make these wish lists and hot lists & Top Picks and track certain stocks for special recommendation and for the most part the ideas work out better in the long run than everyday investing ideas. This years names are un fabulous group; gone are the green energy names, the oil tar sands and spec gas plays, gone are so many neat ideas now trading for $3...

    And in comes Stoney's Top Buys for 09'

    1> WELLPOINT. When a stk just keeps popping up on every screen you do, even if you hate the mundaneness of it- you just got to buy it.

    2> SEQENOM. I bought it a buck higher than I'd like. here's the set up jan 30 we get more hotly anticipated info on their pre natal genetic screening test for Down's Syndrome I think most investors are waiting for that and then will jump on. I'm taking the chance now.

    3>CSKI China Sky 1- I know it sounds like a helicopter reporting traffic in Beijing but it's actually a Chinese drug company and a pretty impressive one.
    This I only went 1/2 position it is far higher than when I first started tracking it... so either it's that one in a thousand stock that's going to go vertical... or it will come back to me.

    I had a larger list of possibilities including a couple from a new friend day trade Erik but in the long run I use Benign Relative Strength when I make my final cull so you will see that despite a market down over 200 these stocks are still doing well. WLP we bought at $43 large block it's up a buck @ $44.00 SQNM pretty much flat where we bought it @ $23 and CSKI in the high $17's ($15.80 is my preferred entry point- the one I missed recently).

    Of stocks I have talked about fairly recently I today sold Green Mtn for a clean $6 gain and PPDI (from the Barrons game) with a 9% gain. I am maintaining large position in SWN a nat gas play I really like but I'm flat and GEOY which SURPRISE I'm up on somehow and VRTX- VERY VERY UP and ISIS down a bit and Calgon Carbon CCC, a stock I really like but was way up and am now down 8% never good. But a good idea.

    Copy this portfolio and REEK the benefits of stonedinvesting!
    Cheers ~ stoney
  2. I'm finishing my 09 rebalance and have added two names -

    HERBALIFE & BE AEROSPACE. I sold geoy & swn to do this.

    Reasons? Well there are few. These two stocks share something in common- they have come off their lows and cusped over their 50 day- a good enough place as any to start.

    Despite having stock prices halved or worse they have maintained good earnings.

    They have significant insider buying.

    I know them.

    With HERB you get a pretty fat spleef of a dividend and with BE you get a tv in your planes headrest.

    Herbalife I have been charting since $18.27 and I bought it now @ $22. And Beav to be honest I was doing a YahooFiance check on Garmin that I keep wanting to buy but have too many issues with and in Garmin's news I was redirected to a piece on some stks worth considering I'm assuming one was Garmin but I never got past BE because I owned this stk many years ago at $10 and they have accomplished so much in that time including swallowing a big Honeywell division that it's just mispricing in my view that has this stock where it is. That and the whole world sucks, everyone is a scam artist and stocks are going sideways for years after the Obama bumb up.... if you can get past that... add these two names to our portfolio... you now have 5 names I won't add another until each and every one is up big.

    I have no idea why only 65 people have read this thread. It's as if I take some time off to blog on the NY Giants and you all forget about me. Well forget at your own perish and as these names ascend mother markets spine drop me a few stars will ya! I think I deserve that for my 09' Top Picks for free, don't you? It used to cost $25 bucks! ~ stoney
  3. Folks my dear NY Giants bit the dust over the weekend. This is good news ultimately for Elite Trader fans as it means my compulsion now turns back to stocks.

    Lets take a brief moment to look at the market as a whole before I start screaming about Sequanom again. You may have noticed the markets fall lately has been orderly and expected. If you expect it one way you have to expect it another-- the market is about to lift.

    Why would JP Morgan move earnings up? That is the big question of the day. They couldn't wait a week, they must feel a short run is coming... could they have a good story to tell?

    By now they have some WAMU numbers and some idea of the toxic crap they bought-- what if it isn't that bad? I know it's a stretch but along with half way decent market internals it leads me to believe the Obama Rally starts this THURSDAY!!!

    Yesterdays fall of some 125 points for the DOW was significant volume was peppy & the averages came under their 50 day. This could set up panic alarms but if we just spend a day or two here before advancing- the big picture will become clear... we are in an uptrend and stocks were overbought, we have now bought a bunch on the retrace and it's time to go further up. A full read of Stochastics suggest the short-term decline that started a few days ago is about half over. But tighter reads reveal hope for an near term advance and along with the JP news those hopes are now slightly pushed up from next week to end of this week.

    Bollinger Bands and Stochastic studies show significant oversoldness near cycle lows indicating that a market rise is imminent.

    Yesterday’s CBOE Total Exchange Volume Put / Call Ratio was 1.16 well into the high-fear zone and the highest post since the mid November market lows when it read 1.41. the high read of 2008 was registered on October 9th at 1.51.

    The (VIX) CBOE Volatility Index (most well known fear index) also has jumped higher yesterday and interday ticked 46. Last week it posted the low-close read of the cycle @ 39.08
    between these two levels (39 & 48) is a two day EXPLOSIVE RALLY... I feel a great over reaction to something coming... but what?

    The JP Morgan move has prompted me to increase my buy size levels and even to contemplate buying A 3 X MARKET FUND- BGU????? Dangerous I know...Could JP Morgan save the day? Or could they sink my battleship?

    I want to discuss some perfect stocks, well not perfect but some real nice charts. I'll start with an old favorite AVAV. Take a look at the 1 year the 2 year the 5 month the 30 day... look wherever what a nice story... and they kill terrorists too! And at a buy point now too which interesting... I blogged here on the name a long time ago... should of held. Let's throw another weird name out - RED HAT... look at that chart and overlay a 50 & 200 day... interesting while other names might crest their 50 day most all are rejected severely from the 200 area... this stk is clinging to the uptrend like it wants to say something... what might it say?-- HEY WE HAVE BEEN BOUGHT BY DELL!... Thinking of putting on a Red Hat. MAXY too, a little biotech look at that one, I have been. We are in a good place now for Biotech. MELA is out soon (any day) with numbers on their melanoma spotter- And SQNM... folks this is my top pick no doubt... with such a market share possibility for a Downs test for moms to be and two important dates this month... the conference this Thursday and the release date Jan 28... this is a one way ticket to heaven. You must own this stock.

    If you managed to pick this up earlier good for you... I've known these guys forever, one of the great saves ever of a company- wild ride down from severe nosebleed territory all the way down to $1; my wife's mom held it the whole way, bless her, a reverse split and quite a trip back up. A stock that BARES WATCHING.
    People eat pasta in downturns & investors have been gobbling up American Int pasta AIPC... what a chart what a comeback, new CEO tidied up books a real nice story...

    We are dancing on a precipice & it feels bad, the economy has had taken away another 1/2% of growth in just the last month... which is a very rapid of rate of decline... lots of talk of rising unemployment and yet also of a further 20% rise in the market. How can the two coincide? I seem to remember a period in the 80's when this happened and maybe early 90's too, I'll have to dig a bit... stocks can climb with high unemployment and have.

    Underneath it all the credit markets are really looking less frozen and you don't really feel like every major bank is about to go under... maybe just a bunch of mid size commercial loan specialist- banks like BB&T! Despite that fear there is a quasi unsettling stability right now... is the worst over? Have we crossed the hump? can the market begin to forward look?... can we go up from here to at least lousy 10,000? Think how pathetic that is...

    I talked up TIPS pretty good here at ET and as well to my older followers and sure enough those that bought are up about 5.6%, did I act on it?- no. But there's another longer term batch coming to market, I'm not sure the timing is just right yet but at some point you have to catch the swing from Deflation concerns to hey everything is overheating... that inflation has cut to come in my view and if you wanted to slog away some funds and were afraid of the market... these TIPS would be a good place to be.

    The financials really look dogged BAC is at a several several year low- despite today's messy market they have reversed higher possibly on the same hope for JP that I talked about above.
    Could the whole sector be ripe for a rebound? Expectations are so low. Down 11% since the start of this month while credit markets get better!!!! GE however remains a big problem for the market.

    Today and tomorrow are IMPORTANT days folks
    it looks to me like the various indicies want to put in double bottoms but if we thrust lower no doubt a new down leg will have begun... look for yesterdays 5 day lows of SPX 864 today as a stopping point with ultimately 860 being important support just 4 points below.... We are dancing on a knife but with a new President coming soon that should help... Hurry Obama Hurry... get that bill passed so you can start talking hope again! I would love to buy BGU RIGHT HERE don't know if I have the guts-
    @$32.42 large Cap bull fund 3X...

  4. Hey whoever took away that STAR suck on this...
    CSKI is up 6% today!

    And dear ole Sequanom how many of you listened?
    SQNM Sequenom -- Lazard Capital raises their SQNM target to $45 from $35 >> Folks stoney is telling you over and over to buy this name since you are apparently fighting the stoned tape I shall buy even more today for you. SQNM can be bought as a daytrade when it takes out Friday rally high $24.44 I believe... I've forgotten, I thought I got you all in safely $22-$23 with me apparently not.

    I would say after 6 sessions of moderate declines for the averages, this set up is PERFECT. The NEGATIVITY is soooo large is palpable - the TV heads are very down the revisit the bottom whores are showing their hemline... I'm sorry I'm going the other way. Which brings me to this 3X I know it's crazy idea of BGU. Currently it is at $31.40 and it's down 4.6% vs the Dow's 1.4% it appears to be tracking just right despite what you might think. No one year chart makes it all feel dirty... but if you are expecting a sharp move up... why not make it three times up??? very tempted...

    Hopefully we can pull off a big REVERSAL day. Citygroup pushed up their " loss announcement " too today which gives pause to the theory that JP has something good to say tomorrow.
    BAC straight up might be the buy of the bunch.

    Ag names have collapsed back and infrastructure hype has past
    retail sales are down 2%
    all of our portfolios are slashed
    and burned. Around every corner is another
    ponzi schem and fraudster crashing a plane
    of stepping in front of a train...
    fun times. All seems lost - BUY.

    ~ stoney
  5. The importance of 848.

    Folks it's easy to be lulled into a state of unawares here but the S&P is beckoning your attention.

    SPX support is at 848 to 789 but 848 is also a PIVOT POINT so I would say any clear break of that is enough to tell us any recent bounce off the lows is over. However as I seed it, (leaving typo in on purpose) we are allowing another washing of the banking stocks while holding fairly good footing and if the financials can complete their wash out with JP " earnings tomorrow then other parts of the market would be a coiled spring which could be led ironically by those same ugly banks.

    BGU would be interesting to play for the turn but the problem is that I would in my etrade account have to hold it 3 days... or get a restriction, I could get it done at the hedge fund but that would require the presenting of this whole bull thesis to review... and then of course very public mea culpa if I'm wrong. (It's easier to make mistakes on etrade!) $30.40 - $30.10 is my ambiguous Buy Zone for BGU.... ~ stoney
  6. If no one replies to your thread maybe you should take it as a hint that no one cares what you think?
  7. If a UFO crashes into a windfarm in the Uk at night did it happen stock? Think about it.

    WE ARE IN ON MELA FOLKS!!!! Boy we got jacked by the MM!!! Sleepy volume today in front of news release probably tomorrow... my downfall perhaps but melanoma is important a l lot false positives happen a lot of excessive surgeries... this scanner can be marketed as a cost reducer to healthcare system... so of course we will be battling all of them!! This is a very obvious $6 stk if the trial went well and the false positives are low...

    BGU is at $29. 71 but I'm soooo scared. Don'T like the look of the Wellpoint chart so much anymore, I think I got stuck in an anti Obama investing idea backlash- thinking of removing that from portfolio and replacing with either American Italian Pasta- great buying came into that name today when it was down or BGU or more SQNM... market appears ready to turn, don't you think? ~ stoney
  8. LARGE purchase of BAC @ $10 level replaces portfolio pick Wellpoint! Urgent*

    market turning right here right now folks.
    BGU if you dare @ 30.00.......

    I've decided on BAC instead think return will be similar without some of the questions I have over a 3X index fund that trades it's whole float every day.~ stoney
  9. Well we lost the pivot yesterday that doesn't bode well... but we nailed the OVERALL CALL SO WELL!!!!

    Thank you for your cards and letters I was too busy crying over my BAC and dayt trading tyhe sh*t out of it to make my money back (well most of it) .... Anyway... yes when the market was in free fall 2 days ago I saw the need to tell you all this Thursaday was the turn day... and here we go... How Does He Do It!

    Great interesting and profitable action today!!!
    Lots of stuff but lets keep the focus tight... I know I strayed from my Benign Relative Strength Meathod BRSM when I fished for Mela and bAC... fine, back to the system today and it paid off... when we were at our lows this morning the following stocks from the stonedinvesting headspace were flat or (SHOCK) UP! EMC,QCOM,PETS,AVAV,AHLD,BBBY,ARST,PLD,VISN,AMZN,QLGC,NTCT,EMS,RIMM... NOTICE ANYTHING?NO WHY SHOULD YOU I DO THEASE SCANS ALL THE TIME AND LATELY THE ONLY NAMES THAT HAVE BEEN SHOWING UP HAVE BEEN OBSCURE BIOTECH AND NEWS DRIVEN DAILY MOVES... today was different we had clusters of quality names and quite a few in tech land... Time For Tech To Lead? I think so. Using our now patented Benign Relative Strength Formula BRSF yielded some huge gains today... I'm still tweaking the system because as it stands now it revolves around 5 pages of my constant stocks...

    It all proved right today. And now for fifty pounds of laundry~ stoney
    #10     Jan 15, 2009