USG - Big Bets With Vol Rise After Earnings

Discussion in 'Trading' started by livevol_ophir, Apr 23, 2010.

  1. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    USG is trading 23.94 with IV30&#8482 up 15.6%.

    <img src="">

    The company has traded over 36,800 options today on total daily average option volume of just 1,988. The largest trade was a call spread purchase in Jun. Calls alone have traded more 15x average total volume on a 5:1 ratio with puts. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (<a href="">in the article</a>).

    The Options Tab (<a href="">in the article</a>) illustrates that the active calls in May, Jun and Aug are mostly (or partially) opening as volume > OI. The May 25, Jun 25 and Aug 25 calls are predominantly purchases - the Jun 27.5 are sales to a spread. You can also see how vol is climbing size today. IV30&#8482 went from 50 to 40 after earnings a few days ago - and now it's right back to 50.

    The Skew Tab snap (in the article) is interesting in that it's not... It just looks like a normal skew - no calls in any month seem out of line. To read why skew exists and what "normal" shape is you can <a href="">click here</a>.

    If the order flow continues I imagine at some point the upside would bend. Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is below (<a href="">in the article</a>). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30&#8482 - red vs HV20&#8482 - blue). The yellow shaded area at the very bottom is the IV30&#8482 vs. the HV20&#8482 vol difference.

    You can see the steep run up in stock off earnings from ~$19 to now over $23 in just a week. I've also blown up the vol chart and hyper magnified on just a few days to illustrate the weird vol moves (in the article). The rise into earnings and drop are normal - the re-rise is the odd part.

    This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

    Details, trades, vols, skews, prices, charts here:
  2. Some dyslexic traders may be confusing the ticker symbol with "GS". :cool:
  3. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    Yeah, very true... Don't get me started on GS...
  4. ?'ll feel "better" when it's trading below $155/share? :confused: :D
  5. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    I'd feel better when it's $0... but let me buy those puts first... ha ha... :cool:
  6. ?.....October "par" puts? :D
  7. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    Everytime I want to buy an option I change my mind and want to sell it... lol... :eek: