Use January 20th, 2006 as a signal day.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by studyandtrade, Feb 7, 2006.

  1. IMHO Friday, January 20th '06 signaled the end of the 2002-2005 Bull market. If it also signaled the start of a new Bear market has yet to be seen, but several signs are pointing into that direction:
    * the leaders don't lead anymore (GOOG, AAPL, YHOO, etc)
    * every important stock index (DJI, COMP, QQQQ, SPX, OEX) shows a VERY bearish reversal pattern in the weekly charts --> an Evening Star c.q. Evening Doji Star
    * bearish MACD & MACD-Histogram divergences in all of those indices
    * volume characteristics during the days after January 20th, a death cat bounce, are defenitely bearish.
  2. No comments received yet. Does that mean everybody agrees with my analysis?
  3. stocks could still move up during feb. bear market? who knows, things should become more clear by the spring/early summer.

    those leaders were priced to perfection and due for a correction.
  4. Are GOOG and AAPL really our stock leaders? They had great run-ups but I do not consider them as leaders of the market or the economy. Also GOOG share price fell but its earnings growth is still strong so the company itself has not fallen really.
  5. Lots of topping signals but they can become overextended even more that they are now- the market is going nuts on the slightest positive news- low quality bond rally next ?
    Something that could disguise the classic extreme top is the Iran and Nigeria oil concerns that are supressing any rallies- money seems to be going in but the reds are diluting them with plenty of Charasma:)
    Just my opinion - plenty of topping signs but markets often stretch way beyond the rational crowd's way of seeing things

    The Japanese thing where they closed the markets early wasn't too encouraging- but i'm sure they have all kinds of answers.

    I think jobs numbers should help identify a potential top- they are usually quick to shed jobs and slow to hire, the fact that people are edgy about more rate hikes is good- its worse when speculators throw caution to the wind and they act as though nothing could stop the market- like the run up just prior to jan.20 th decline- extremely bullish overtones in certain news columns/headlines didn't make any sense.
  6. There is no such thing as a "Top"

    in a market that gained 3-5% last year.

    What are you topping? Inflation gains?


    More like get ready for a nice up year.
  7. No, your dire warning put the entire ET membership into a collective shock. I just snapped out of it, and found myself sitting at the computer with your post on the screen. I was freshly shaven before, now after coming out of the shock I have a fully grown over beard.

    ....Rip van Rennick out.
  8. For the bearish case it's good to hear that so many people are still very complacent!
  9. if stocks go down from here then guess where the top is
  10. So I assume you will be shorting stocks or have shorted stocks since stocks fell today

    please name the ones you have shorted and at which price

    so we can see if you hit the top :)
    #10     Feb 9, 2006