Looks like its making a push to capture 120. Points to a bullish dollar picture, inline with credit market behavior. FOMC rate cuts further down the road.
I certainly would appreciate you or anyone else giving me an accurate, well-timed forecast for YEN. Not too much to ask, is it?
The dollar is turning bullish, but yen crosses still at risk from BOJ expected rate increase this month. Track the nikkei too with the usd.yen. Exporter component moves with the USDJPY. Since its at the top of the range, the risk is that reversion to mean players will try to knock it down back into the range. The trade that seems to work is just go short at current levels and place a stop at 120.10. And a buy stop at 120.15. With current levels at 119.60 thats a 50 pip entry to stop range. Since 1% stop loss on equity or less is prudent, only 1 lot can be placed with such a large stop. Basically the point of stops is that when they get hit, it will change the models/sentiment.
AUD/yen may regain and improve on 94.00 off tonight's Aussie employment news. That is indicated by the first trading off the news. Should go even higher next week. I for one don't forsee BoJ hike.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=at2vDIfz3kWM&refer=home AUD data very strong, puts the global macro bears further back. The signs are that the world is doing quite well. US Monetary Policy might surprise people in the coming year. Fed wont ease as much as the markets are expecting.
Just exited at 120.55, entry short at 119.60 with SL at 120.10, buy stop triggered at 120.15. = -10 pips on the trade. Entering new trade short at 120.55 with 50 pip SL 121.05. TP 120.00
Asians want to play with it at higher levels during asian session. Going to stay out, till Asians test the high end of the range then institute a short with the same parameters.
anyone have any thoughts on the yen going into the BOJ meeting next week. I know it has record short interest therefore it looks to me like it might be a decent buy.
The usdjpy might actually rally after the interest rate hike if there is any. The next time BOJ hikes will be far off on the time table. If they dont hike, then it lingers around, and for both situations you might see a kneejerk reaction. 1) Hike : USDJPY collapses in short term then rallies. 2) No hike: USDJPY rallies in short term then collapses. We didnt break 120 to backoff I think they want to test the 121 handle. Everyone whos long has stops at 120. Banks might run those stops from now till the meeting.