Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by pentothal, Sep 3, 2013.

  1. Comment

    USDJPY has had a strong day today and managed to break above a significant short term resistance level (see chart1).

    If things continue to move in the same direction I reiterate my target of 110 (chart2 for the details). The Nikkei had a similar move today so this reinforces the idea that the consolidation that started in May has run its course and the index/FX will be moving higher in the coming weeks.

    A close below 94 would invalidate my analysis.


    Prices have moved strongly above the diagonal resistance line that has contained price action since the top in May. MACD has broken its resistance a week or so ago, giving another good warning signal that the same may happen to price.

    From an Elliott wave perspective we have completed a wave 4 so we should continue higher before the movement can be considered complete


    The weekly chart clearly shows how the wave 5 target also coincides with a long term resistance level (not shown, is the white line on top) increasing the probability of 110 as final target.

  2. expiated


    My stats are forecasting a bit of an elevation in USDJPY's future, but time will tell whether it actually materializes.

  3. maxinger


    between 2008 and 2016, usdjpy used to move alot.
    since then it is forming a close wedge formation.

    its movement is going to be very limited till don't know when.
  4. expiated


    USDJPY found a measure of support near this level (108.22) around 4/8/16, 4/18/17, 9/11/17, 1/25/18, 5/29/18, and 1/1/2019. So will it rally, even if only temporarily, here again?

    ScreenHunter_5234 Jun. 04 17.04.jpg
    In the event that is does, chances are that it won't last long...

  5. expiated


    If USDJPY is indeed going to follow through on turning north, it's looking like it might take at least four days to do so...