USDJPY weakness

So the USDJPY is nearing that 75 mark where the BOJ stepped in with force last time. The fundamentals still point to a stronger yen, as do the technicals, and the pair is a month off the time that it took to break out of its previous trading range in June 2011. BOJ have stepped in at lower levels each time, hoping for natural support, but Japan's deflation just supports their ability to print an infinite amount of money to pay off their debts (unlike the US, which risks hyperinflation if it tried to implement the same policy). The full reasoning was here.

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A few traders I know are bullish, on the basis that Europe is containing its crisis, but depressed T-Note yields aren't signalling any slippage in demand for safe haven assets yet. I'd say short it until 75, and then take profits with any sharp falls, in anticipation of possible BOJ action.

Any thoughts anyone?

 

bad idea.

 

I swapped out my short USDJPY at a small loss for some GBPJPY at a smaller postion, but I am also short CHFJPY

so I'm short CHFJPY from 81.58

and short GBPJPY from 117.79

it would really help me if JPY rallies before it crashes

 

i am long 2M USDJPY

 

if you want to hedge, I'd be willing to bet you that you will make more on this deal than I will

otherwise USD is hard to read right now, but you're probably right on JPY

that's why I swapped out to GBP, but still, I'm on the wrong side unless nothing bad happens

 

i just think that the huge refugee flows into JGBs lately is unsustainable, once that flow reverses and risk appetile improves, USDJPY has more upside than down.

 

at this point, i would prefer a range-bound trade using leveraged etfs in the 77-77.4 range.

 

I don't understand. What would be the advantage of a leveraged ETF? Couldn't you just reduce your position to 2 or 3 times cash? Wouldn't that be the same thing?