USDJPY Overall Bearish

Discussion in 'Forex' started by Primetrader, Aug 13, 2009.

  1. USDJPY on the 4-hour chart (H4) is on hard down. Only 2nd along on nominal duration play with about 3 to go and this will also be a total of 12 bars nominal wavelength for a possible bottom. Observe also the oscillating variation of either an 8 or 9 bars, 12 to 13 bars cyclical patterns. Hitting or forming any of these identifiable bottoms should be watched. You want to draw your S1 or S2 line as needed everytime you see any of these cyclic bottom for an opportunity for scalping.

    But notice that while your H4 may be on the easing mode, your H1 in the meantime is not in synch but instead is now trying to fluctuate upwards. Therefore, what's happening on the price uptick on the H1 may last for about 4 or 5 H1 bars or at the most a total up run of 7 to 8 bars. It's only 2nd along in counting as of this time of writing.

    That is what's visible in my price motion and time study. But now talking of numbers on resistance and supports...
    If you are hooked on H1 for your Trade, I would watch the emerging resistance as it covers 33 to 37 pips or thereabout upper side magnitude on very near term trading and that's where it is, is the 70 pips stride and that would be bumping the 95.70s nearby upper ceiling boundary. Next would be the dominant 116 pips rally and that would put 96.17/19 on the path for a resistance. I would have a trailing support and that would be the S1 rising line and 92.28/29 or could be a bit lower to 92.22/23 is tagged as trailing supports.

    By the way, your Daily D1 component is right on target for a hard down phase and you may want to blend hat with your short term trading other words, price fluctuations in H4 and H1 will ultimately be pulled down by the price action courtesy of the D1.

    Just an added thought....that if you want a long term daily trading cycle to pick on, the pair is in for some search of new lows and I am seing a minimum of about 4 or 6 more days of bearish activity---till Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
  2. Now on its second wave of decline
  3. USDJPY has been waiting for some economic data to turn it around. I don't think it will hit rediculous like it did when it wnet under 90Y to 1$. But you are right the market will see how low it can go before it catched somebody interest who is big time. I am long USD JPY but it is long term and keep on wathing the roll money add up. A rate change by the USmight be the trigger needed that changes the trend.

  4. Moreover, if the S1 and S2 supports crack without completing the rally mentioned above, I see a minimum of 6 to 7 H4 bars of sustained bearish push with a potential of going for 9 bars --- instead. On near term basis supports to consider in your short entries are: A.) 94.06/11; B.) 93.70s; and C. 93.25/30.
  5. Primetrader,

    Do me the small favor of having one thread where you do all your commentary, please.

    I do appreciate it.

    Thank you,

  6. USDJPY today hit our B Target at 93.70
  7. I am surprised it was over 94 at the close of the US market.I think there will be qyite a few retests of your B level. Saw one of the US no longer a reserve currency reports on Bloomberg lets see if this makes a bottom.