Market makers just using the news release to make some money. I often take advantage of such situations, but with rate decisions often having genuine impact, I was "hands off" this time around.
USDCAD was turned back at this level on August 13th, August 17h, and November 1st, so I was hoping it will happen again right now, especially since 1.3183 was one of five statistics driven, data-based levels of resistance for me. (My other levels were at 1.3150, 1.3212, 1.3248, and 1.3296 at the most extreme.)
The Loonie has been rising ever since October 2nd, and given that my Dynamic Probability Triple-zone system placed notable support at 1.3167 and 1.3128, I entered a long position as soon as I got the signal that a trip north was being forecast by the system's forecast model.
USDCAD looks to have lost much of the momentum that sent it southward on June 18th, and seeing as how 1.3100 marks a region of (what I think of as) significant statistical support, I'm going to try to pick up a few pips by buying the pair at this level (1.3116) even though the U.S. dollar-loonie is still technically bearish.
Yes, it's just a handful of pips, but should the day come when the typical lot size I'm trading is 1.00 as opposed to 0.02, it will still amount to a worthwhile return, and no doubt, I'm likely to appreciate the days I spent honing and becoming proficient with the execution of a system that has now essentially been fully developed, even it for mere pennies at this time.
At 1.3127 the hourly trend has once again turned south, so even if I timed everything perfectly, the most I could have gotten out of the above move would have been about 20 to 24 pips. I am now turning my attention to a new line of inquiry which I am calling universal structure, and according to how this forecast model prompts me to interpret my chart setups, I should definitely plan on observing USDCAD continue heading south.
The pair is very bearish and it broke out below 1.3100. I would not be surprised to see it fall all the way to 1.3000 too.
The way I'm interpreting my forecast model, USDCAD has be riding daily and weekly support southward for the past six days. But at 1.2977 down to 1.2716, the pair hits what I call universal support as well, so I plan to buy this asset as soon as the day-to-day trend turns north. But so far, the instrument hasn't betrayed even a hint of an inclination toward doing so. (Overall it's been rising ever since the middle of September 2017.)
For now it is still testing the support (and last low) at 1.3070. I think it will break out below that level but we will have to wait until next week.
This was an aggressive entry for me, since I was not yet granted permission to buy USDCAD by a bona fide reversal in the day-to-day trend. However, in that the reward-to-risk ratio is what, for me, amounts to about a gazillion-to-one ratio, I opted to take the risk of getting stopped out, figuring I could make up the loss once the pair actually did genuinely turn in my favor. I've drawn lines on this chart, but in actual practice, my forecast models are based on number crunching (statistical probability) rather than lines I myself draw subjectively.