I been going long/hedged Canadian for past 2 years, since spike down in Jan 2016 seems to be holding, I have tried to add few times to not finding secondary lows, add in early May/maybe secondary lows. I stopped guessing over 20 years ago, just waiting for the ride to begin.
As long as the Canadian housing market doesn't collapse and no major mortgage issues will arise... and commodity markets will bounce back, I would say CAD should rise. BOC rate is still at 0.5% with inflation at 1.6%... surely they will increase rates sooner than later. Might be more interesting to look at AUD.CAD. Similar economies, same size roughly, both driven by commodity market... 'strong' housing market... RBA rate sits at 1.5% versus the BOC of 0.5%... with inflation following each other more or less. BOC rate will rise earlier and more than RBA's....
USDCAD has gone virtually nowhere in the last 72 hours, but is technically still bullish. Moreover, it failed to evidence continuation after trying to reverse south 18 hours ago, and spent the last 6 hours coming off support, crossing above my trigger line 2 hours ago. It has retreated somewhat during the last hour, but is still north of my main arbiter, so I went ahead and entered a long position at 1.3090.
I was stopped out of my position with the release of the Bank of Canada rate decision, so it will probably be at least a couple of hours before I can determine if or how I should make up the loss.