USD Wkly

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by hcour, Oct 13, 2005.

  1. hcour

    hcour Guest

    USD Wkly. EMA is the 40 wk (200d). Following a long consolidation, there is a sharp reaction to A, then a consolidation w/virtually nil retracement. Another sharp reaction to B, then consolidation at 38% retracement. At C yet another sharp reaction, but this time the retracement is much deeper, backup into the previous consolidation that temporarily breaks the supply line for the first time. The subsequent reaction to D is once again a deep one and the most sustained since A, but mostly hugging the supply line and this becomes a SC. The rally to E decisively breaks the channel, getting all the way back to s/r at C and forming a trading-range at exactly 50% retracement of the previous reaction. From here volatility contracts and an apex forms. At F a shakeout and SOT (shortening of thrust, from C to D vs D to F), tested at G, note the high vol down bar on the test that does not follow-thru. A nice rally back into the tr and near previous highs to minor resistance at H. But the vol peters out at resistance. As of this chart price may be forming an apex w/in the whole range. Note again the narrowing of spreads at resistance (vs the wider spreads of the reaction) w/relatively good vol that can't do much, suggesting at least further consolidation in this timeframe.

    The 200d ema interacts very nicely w/the s/r lines here, and seems to be flattening out as long-term volatility contracts.