USD top? 9-12-2008

Discussion in 'Economics' started by matgallis, Sep 13, 2008.

  1. The dollar sure has rallied lately, off the 70-ish low/consolidation. Luckily for me I sold my gold/silver during this 3-mo consolidation, at almost the all time top.

    Now that inflationary commodities such as Steel prices, coal, oil, etc have come way off their highs the FED now has reloaded their guns for a further rate cuts, with the first 25-50bp coming this week.

    Therefore, the action/movement of the dollar this friday is beginning to raise a flag about the dollar recovering above a popular support/resistance area of "80". Considering the increasing likely hood of the fed slashing rates further, some long dollars are probably beginning to pull their positions.

    So this week will rally. LEH will be bailed out with little equity sacrifice, fed cuts 25-50bp, and options expire. 700pt rally anyone? Right when it's starting to look really good, is the best time to take a contrarian position considering the flood of negative information already established.

    Looking for some oct-november-december-jan leep puts on an index. This week presents a good time to get a short position. Nothing is better than getting the right position at a discount :cool:
  2. i am already short usd.jpy at 110 at the 50% fib retracement point.

    i am sure alot of guys are waiting to slam the dollar on this rally, but the question is when will they do it. 80 is such an obvious level perhaps it may fake above it for a few weeks then move lower. it could even rally for much longer, who knows its been sold hard for like 8 years straight.

    dangerous, but if u can time it well there is money to be made for sure. there has to be one last downleg at least even if usd has bottomed already imo.