The USD/CAD pair is falling at a rate of a thousand pips a month. Everyone says its oversold but the selling acclerates. Is it possible we're seeing the death of the USD? AUD should be worth more than USD this year.
It sounds incredible but I think it is becoming reality. Global world economy has added a number of major new players that are willing to pay eg. oil in their own currencies or mabe Eur's. Rumour that FED rate cuts had a hidden agenda to diminish value of foreign debt didn't help either; foreign debt wil hedge by selling the $-futs. Full vicious circle. The cardhouse may well topple withing a few months. I'm glad IB has Eur's accounts Ursa..
Dollar is eroding faster than expected. I saw a analyst the other day say that 1.45 was a threshold level that could be pierced by end of year. If it doesn't hold 1.45, it could plummet, as this level could cause a run. The dollar is at 145.58.
I honestly think the speculative frenzy to get oil to 100 is doing the same to the CAD pair. I wouldn't read into it unless the 10 and 30 yr start selling off heavily even when the equities market is crashing. The AUD as well is a gold proxy. The USD is not doing this horrible against the European currencies, though.
Dollar rout could get worse if the FED keeps cutting rates by ignoring true inflation. Tonight the Reserve Bank of Australia just lifted rates another 1/4% to 6.75%, and they think they may go up another 1/2% next year. This increase only increases the differential presuure against the USD. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.V0QKovl1GM&refer=home If the FED keeps ignoring true inflation by focusing on cooked book inflation we are in big trouble.
When oil and metals crater the Canadian Dollar will crater vs. the US Dollar. Until then the USD/CAD will continue to slide.
.9160ish now for USD/CAD. Damn! -516 pips in one month -601 pips from 9/6 to 10-6 -2491 pips since the beginning of the year!! What currency has ever done this before? Any examples?