Discussion in 'Forex' started by uninvited_guest, Oct 16, 2005.
USD selling off now. Anyone know why?
I believe I know why in relation to Yen: "Fundamentals for dollar exhausted, USD a highwire act at this price, 50 pips or so above 114 spot. Nikkei 225 has resumed march up, which will continue." That's my post from last week, prior to the cooler-than-expected inflation and sentiment data on Friday.
it's time has come? or perhaps there is no reason at all. I just read a paper that stipulates in the long run interest rate differentials have an effect on the price of currency pairs, but in the short run price movements approximate a random walk.
There's another hurricane coming towards the States, I seem to remember hearing today. Bad for the economy, blah blah blah.
In other words, some big hedge funds MA's just crossed.
you're exactly, right, Cable.
and, really, we dropped from 1.3665. EUR/USD is gonna be extremely hard-pressed to hit those numbers again at this stage of the game.
we're 1/2 way thru October and the pair seems to be stuck under 1.2200.
barring an earth-moving, world-shattering event, not much is gonna change euro strength-wise now that the Fed is in full march to corner inflation - interest rates are just gonna go up, up, up.
anyone buying/holding euro is gonna get fried by having to pay interest.
as long as the Fed keeps raising rates, euro's not a 'buy' at this point until the rate reaches the 1.1500s in my opinion.
that leaves only one direction - to scale EUR/USD short.
It's, like, pay me now or pay me later.
It's a pure interest rate play.
I love these threads. Good stuff!
You only like it because you make so much money fading the rest of us!
man what a selloff.
Ok, ok. I was being sarcastic. But not because of what you said I love to listen to some traders posting the reasoning behind some of the moves they see. Not because they're either right or wrong (though mostly wrong, in my opinion), but because they're so damned sure of why things happen.
are you kidding?
my EUR/USD one-hour chart looks like a Chinese character!
what do I have to be to trade this market, a Russian??
Separate names with a comma.