LOL, i did get stopped out with the trailing stop i had set up. Out with a small gain (24 pips). I still think the down move will resume.
I always try to ride the trend, not catch the tops or bottoms. You will soon lose your sanity trying to predict that.
Stepping back into the sand box, cautiously, buying/averaging in Yen front month on Globex at .008250 and below, expecting drop to stall with European open, with price to climb above .008300 by mid week (72 hour projection). If correct, will remain long into next week. Stops to be set 10 to 30 ticks below 8200.
Yen pierced 8300 overnight without conviction. Range bound since post above, 8252 (low during Monday session, which was slightly high for my planned entry) to 8306 (high overnight), or aprox 121.40 to 120.62 spot.
Week's low in near month YEN future -- .008252 -- touched shortly before European open on Monday, most likely to give way overnight, probably in early Europe trade Thursday. Very little resistance until .008225. Plan to buy the near month at and slightly below .008230, stops to be set 35 ticks below entry. In spot terms, overnight, I expect USD/Yen to recoil from rise to about 121.75.
Nothing but an educated guess about price action in the event week's low pierced, with some consideration of expected light volume overnight prior to European open. Also reflects some consideration of volatility priced into Yen options at the beginning of the week. Last, entry simply reflects my interest in bargain hunting the contract, something I tried and just missed at the start of the week.
From your remark, I gather you are bullish the dollar at the high it reached at the start of this week, aprox 121.35-.40 spot. (It was at that point that I posted my first Yen buy order.) How much more of a loss are you willing -- or would be willing -- to take in that long dollar position? And when will the rising dollar trend you mention resume?