Discussion in 'Forex' started by brad1970, Jul 17, 2003.

  1. brad1970


    Anyone else get "hammered" out on Tuesday?

    Got in on the bearish move last week. Then I got buy signal went long @ 117.50 Tuesday morning, with, what I thought was comfortable stop (50 pips), as I was going away for 2 days.

    Lo and Behold, it went down to 116.67 before coming back and hitting 118.00..
  2. rezo_s


    I didnt trade this pair since last month, and this week I posted on other forum that I suggest not trading it. There was much better trading (selling) of yen crosses recently. Couple weeks ago I got to ride the down move on euroyen for +201 pips. At the moment theres nothing interesting on yen and its crosses. Yes, I saw ppl get hammered on it. Of course they would be - intervention never passes without significant losses on somebody's side - I mean, someone was selling all the way japanies were buying green :D Though I know traders still holding shorts...I dont know...maybe, but maybe is not enough for me to trade. Anyway,

    Good Trading to you.
  3. brad1970


    Hedge Funds Go Long Yen On View BOJ Unable To Cap Yen
    By Nicholas Hastings

    LONDON (Dow Jones)--Hedge funds are starting to go long the yen on the growing belief that the Bank of Japan will have to give up trying to weaken its currency.
    The Japanese central bank is estimated to have spent as much as Y1 trillion Wenesday in another effort to keep the dollar above Y117.00. The U.S. currency was trading at Y119.14 at 1200 GMT Friday

    But hedge funds are starting to suggest the central bank will become overwhelmed by the sheer weight of capital flows into the yen as international investors look to sell the dollar on uncertainty about the U.S. economic
    recovery and concerns about the current account deficit.

    And they speculate that the Bank of Japan's aim of weakening the yen to boost exports will be downgraded in the wake of the recent recovery in the Japanese stock market.

    Indeed, implicit U.S. agreement with this intervention policy could well evaporate as the Bush administration gears up for its 2004 re-election platform which will be more concerned about keeping U.S. exporters happy. "I think the long-term trend is to be long yen," said Eduoard Petitdidier, co-head of the Paris-based sstematic hedge fund, Systeia Capital Management.

    He says he started to go long yen against the dollar and the euro two or three weeks ago on the assumption that the yen will be allowed to fall to Y115 and that it will then head down towards Y105.

    "One day, the Bank of Japan won't be able to stop the appreciation of the yen," he said. The dollar, he points out, has already fallen against most other major currencies and there's pressure for it to do so against the yen as well.

    Wait To Test BOJ Resolve

    But not all funds are quite ready to pile into the yen just yet. Paul
    Chappell, director of currency advisors C-View Ltd., says he is waiting to see
    how the Bank of Japan reacts if the dollar falls as far as Y115.50.
    "I would definitely want to sell the dollar if there was a break of
    Y115.50," he said.
    The Bank of Japan has spent as much as Y7 trillion intervening in the
    foreign exchange market between the Y115 and Y117 levels against the dollar
    this year in an attempt to stop the yen strengthening.
    But the Japanese currency has been driven higher not just by the weak dollar
    story over recent weeks - it's also been pushed up by Japanese investors
    repatriating overseas funds to invest in a rising domestic stock market and to
    cover losses in Japanese government bonds.
    But now there are distinct signs that more speculative international
    accounts - such as those managed by hedge funds - are starting to join the
    The latest capital flows data from the Japanese Ministry of Finance showed
    that the net inflow of funds into Japan reached a record Y2.037 billion last
    Patrick Bennett, a currency strategist with Commerzbank in Singapore says a
    breakdown showed that foreign investor interest accounted for at least one
    quarter of flows over the last month.
    Even the ultra conservative hedge fund of funds, Dawnay, Day and Olympia, is
    keeping a close eye on developments.
    Chief executive officer Ian Morely says that while concern over the Japanese
    economy had driven the group to lower its exposure to the yen in two funds
    worth about $2 billion to about 1.5% now from about 3% a year ago, it could
    easily be raised again at the company's monthly allocation meetings.
    "That doesn't mean we are not going to increase it again," said Morely.
    -By Nick Hastings, Dow Jones Newswires; 44 20 7842 9493;