Yup that too but this morning "they" don't seem to be waiting for either. Meanwhile $DXY has been on a little of a tear since June 3rd swing low.
I think when it comes to diagonal lines, it gets very tricky. Your upper line has a very recent connection, so its not that obvious. If we draw the green line, using an earlier high, we get not so much a trend line, but a price level, and this created a bit of a reaction, but broke easily, and even had that nice back test. But I can also go crazy with other diagonal lines, trying to encapsulate price, and both blue lines that I show fail, the first one trying to capture a downtrend, and the second one for the up trend, although that break didn't really lead to a breakdown. I guess my point is, trend line touches work horribly if you're wanting to be exact, and if you're giving so much breathing room, like taking the trade early just in case the line doesn't even hit, or giving it lots of room after it breaks, then your stops are huge. And with huge stops, you either need huge wins, or a high win rate, which trend lines don't give you.
I wouldn't use either of those two candle wick highs. The one back in Oct'22 has a high close (that I would use) then long wick HH - traders got stuck candle, a doji with long wicks on either end another candle with combined wicks greater than the body, then the following wide range breakdown candle. Resistance was not way up at the top of that 152.xx candle top. It was at the close of the prior bull candle. Then next swing pivot high - large bull candle top again is where resistance is. Wick of HH was more traders stuck.
JPY futures very dead and have very poor volatility. The day range (see histogram) can hardly exceed 0.5%. Wake up JPY!!! There are many other better and more volatile futures to trade.
You're really getting ahead of yourself. Why don't you just wait for now and see how this will pan out in the next few days.
Macros are not my cup of tea either, but there are those who actually care about this kind of thing. Believe it or not.
Macro is not my cup of tea either, but it seems to me like the right thing to do is to let the market decide what the price should be. If they don't want a weak currency, maybe they shouldn't have interest rates so low. They have already wasted billions of dollars artificially creating demand by selling USD and buying Yen, and it did nothing. The appropriate steps are to fix the reason why the currency is weak, and then the market can do the heavy lifting of supporting the currency. But I realize no government will ever fix any problem with the most efficient solution. They just duct tape everything together and hope it lasts. (and this is an insult to duct tape because it actually works very well). And here is the shameless Bitcoin plug. Look at what happens to every company that adopts Bitcoin... it instantly gets a massive boost (happened to already 2 in the US that I'm aware of). So maybe Japan, instead of selling USD to buy Yen, should sell USD to buy Bitcoin. I think last time they spent $60B USD to buy Yen, with only a temporary increase in strength. Can you imagine with they spent just 10%, so $6B, to buy Bitcoin? I bet you that it would massively increase the price of the Yen.