USD/JPY to the Moon

Discussion in 'Forex' started by schizo, Apr 27, 2024.

  1. schizo

    schizo

    upload_2024-4-28_12-18-48.png
    upload_2024-4-28_12-17-4.png
    upload_2024-4-28_12-19-38.png
     
    #11     Apr 28, 2024
  2. Thon1960

    Thon1960

    If Yen weakens, what will impact other currencies in the future?
     
    #12     Apr 28, 2024
  3. schizo

    schizo

    Everything is revolving around the strength of the dollar at the moment. Also the dovish BOJ is aggravating the situation. Currently, 10 year Japanese bond = 1% and US10 = 4.7%. Hence, everyone is chasing after the yen carry trade, which is driving down yen further.
     
    #13     Apr 28, 2024
  4. schizo

    schizo

    upload_2024-4-28_22-8-23.png


    upload_2024-4-28_22-8-1.png
     
    #14     Apr 29, 2024
  5. TVIS

    TVIS

    Expected drop
     
    #15     Apr 29, 2024
  6. Image you held 3X GDP in JPY denominated 0% 15 year notes...
    (I couldn't easily find stats on the term of the debt.)
    If rates rise to 5% those existing notes are only worth about half what they were before. So theoretically raising rates is supposed to increase the value of a currency, but when the central bank holds most of the outstanding debt, it means that the central bank takes a huge, instant hit to its balance sheet.

    Then you gave the issue where a huge chunk of their stock market is also government held and you'll have a similar hit to the value of stocks.
    Finally, the government is still running a deficit. Borrowing at 5% for that is going to hurt.

    I suppose they have a sizeable amount of us treasuries, they could sell those and buy yen. Short term bump. Still if I was trying to value the yen, I would rather see them hold that positive yielding USD debt than 0% JPY debt or JPY cash.

    I must be missing something because I never thought they would get away with keep rates at zero for so long in the first place.
     
    #16     Apr 29, 2024
  7. Jack1960

    Jack1960

    Japan intervened. Yen fell from 160 to 154 in minutes.
     
    #17     Apr 29, 2024
    Picaso likes this.
  8. schizo

    schizo

    What always amazes me is the sheer timing of these moves. Did BOJ wait until the price went up to 160 before making their announcement? How does it always match up with the price expectation? Everyone's been saying for days about 160.
     
    #18     Apr 30, 2024
    Picaso likes this.
  9. Picaso

    Picaso

    So now, 95% chance we revisit 160 to see if their powder is still dry.
     
    #19     Apr 30, 2024
    schizo likes this.
  10. schizo

    schizo

    I dunno. It would be an uphill battle, especially if the BOJ is holding the torch.
     
    #20     Apr 30, 2024
    Picaso likes this.