I'm not sure it's much of a carry trade but getting long exposure to Chinese yuan is possibly the best bet over the long term. Various economists have said it may be 30-50% undervalued. Maybe if you visit Hong Kong / Singapore you can open an account with a bank there. I haven't done this though. Long term even if the Chinese housing bubble bursts (quite probably) it doesn't necessarily mean a weaker RMB in the long term. Japan is a case in point - their house bubble burst in 1989/90 with land prices falling 70-90% in some areas and yet twenty years on the yen is stronger. So if you're talking a five or ten year horizon that would be my choice. SGD is a decent proxy for RMB I think. I have a soft spot for South Africa as a country with so much potential so maybe ZAR is worth a look...worst case you can buy a home and live there if the currency collapses!
It looks like USD/JPY is basing down here above 80 and steadily holding its ground. I wanted to know what normally happens in situations like these, so I looked it up and found that most times the pair tends to bounce fairly strongly with similar price action. Based on the chart, we could see a strong 2-300 pip move in the next 2-3 weeks.
Well swing, if the range gets any narrower we are talkin flat line. I don't think we could squeeze over 100 pips out of this thing seeing the extra low volume this summer but, it could happen. The Ever Laying On This Nice Warm Rock And Relaxing VIPER
To put things into perspective some, the average monthly % chg in price for USD/JPY from 1/2000 to 5/2010 was 1.84%. Collectively, the average for months June/July/August was 1.62% (12% decline). So while ranges may be tighter and volume lower in the summer, there are certainly moves to be had. And for what it's worth, 1.62%, where we're at now, is appx 130 pips. Consolidation begets a breakout. I'm not saying it will be glorious volatility, but there should be something worthwhile.
Fwiw I closed my yen long for a small loss around 81.15 last night. No need to be hero on this occasion.
I think the Yen is much more likely to hit 100 before it hits 75, come on...below 80 you're fighting against a central bank. Look at Kobe 1995 charts