USD/JPY long 3/28/11

Discussion in 'Forex' started by jrlvnv, Mar 30, 2011.

  1. jrlvnv


    After the earthquake and news and such, I believe that Japan is in a very tough time. I went long the pair at 81.81 and added today 82.72. My stop on the trade is 81.45 which is about the amount I risked on the first trade.

    Bad trade? Comments from people that actually know what is going on in the currencies would be great.

    My thoughts on the technicals is that the longs were flushed out on the 16th which will start a long term uptrend. I have seen that a lot on 1hr timeframes where there is some stop running at the end of the move and the start of a new move.
  2. Roark


    That's going to seriously limit replies.
  3. jrlvnv


    That actually made me laugh. Well how does the chart look for a longer term trade?
  4. provance


    I would very prudent of going long at this point which has proved strong resistance in the past
  5. From DailyFX (admittedly this is a week old):

    USDJPY – Continued USDJPY rallies have been met with fairly aggressive crowd selling, giving contrarian signal to go long the volatile currency pair. The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.89 as nearly 65% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.96 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.5% lower than yesterday and 20.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.8% higher than yesterday and an impressive 50.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.4% weaker than yesterday and 18.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator, and the persistent build in short positions gives contrarian signal to buy into USDJPY rallies.

    It's hilarious how the dollar longs ride the dollar down for years, finally get a wash-out and a decent rally - and then they short the dollar.

    USDJPY to 100.
  6. jrlvnv


    I am still long at 81.81 added at 82.87 and 84.00 Stop is at 82.95 and looking to add more on a pullback but doesn't seem to be happening.
  7. This trend is going to last for a while - the earthquake was like ringing a bell at the top.
  8. Yeah...I have this pair on an EA....but I reversed the signal algorithm when I discovered I was holding too long and adding too many I go long and wait for an seems to go only long...(I hate to think what would have happened if I did not change the EA)

    The USD/JPY remains impossible to trade with technical analysis as its movements are merely fundemental, political and news driven...


  9. I was long USD/JPY when they first announced the Government manipulation.

    Had another order at 84.65 after it made that 84.50ish low but never got filled. Dumped whole position in anticipation of a market sell off in Japan on Friday, never came to fruition so I reentered at same level.

    Also longed CAD/JPY to hedge
  10. Yes, seeing another great opp to get long USD/JPY, bought a few on Friday, will buy more if weak down to the 81-82 area.
    #10     Apr 16, 2011