Is it me or is USD/JPY totally disconnected from dollar strength/weakness? It seems to completely have a mind of its own. Sometimes it moves with the dollar (like it should), other times (like today) it moves opposite the dollar. wtf?
Well, you know USDJPY also depends on what happens in that other insignificant little ccy? Sometimes they call it the Japanese Yen, I hear. Seriously, the weight of JPY in the dollar basket (DXY) is only arnd 15%. Why would you expect such a strong degree of co-movement, given the weight?
It could be because of the Japanese primeminister trying to get neutral with everyone? I wouldn't be surprised if he was taking steps economically as well.
I realize that, but at a bare minimum I would expect it to not track the exact OPPOSITE of the dollar, which is exactly what it's doing.
Well, it seems that people believe that yen is still very much a safe-haven currency. I don't think it's anything other than a bout of risk-aversion. BTW, I very much disagree and I went long GBPJPY at 147.
Well, it's not like GBP has a sterling reputation these days. At any rate, I used today as an opportunity to get into a couple of positive carry, "risk-on" trades (GBPJPY being one of them, with an added 'Japan fiscal disaster' bonus). Hedged with a wee bit of a DXY long.
I intended this trade to only go intra-day, but maybe I'll look to add a longer term trade. The fiscal melt down of Japan hadn't really crossed my mind before. But, then again, I have this thing about not holding FX positions over the weekend...
USD/JPY 88.50 is just so crucial...look at it on a daily chart...this breaks and we go down...perhaps "freefall" from there..its been a major support...note this...