Ok what I'm going to do is short the gbp/aud... Any thoughts?? I think the jpy is a little weak of late so I'm going to go with a different cross..
Looking at usd/jpy on a monthly chart, the most likely outcome is the 102 area within weeks or months. I prefer the gbp/jpy as a short and expect it will be down at 202 or below within the same timeframe. GBP will likely fall against most currencies including aud. I'm taking a long term view though, I'm expecting a bumpy ride.
It will be volatile with economic data being adjusted and weighed. 102 is a fair call in line with a down trending trend channel.
Anyone buying this stimulus package?.... This won't do anything to help the job market so a verified recession is just a matter of when. With the credit crisis it's going to get ugly for the dollar.
U.S $ very strong today. Room for a rate cut. Rate cuts don't necessarily result in depreciation of currency anyway. Soon we'll see a race to the bottom - everybody trying to devalue to gain a trade advantage.
I don't fallow the Chinese currency but I've heard they are appreciating the Yuan so the Yen should follow it's path. I think it was Jim Rogers that said the Yen will go up in a matter of time and the way he said it was like it will really appreciate.
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