Hey, Swim, DX has just entered bear after US GDP . I had good profits with pound and gold, with long positions. Better not buy DX. I don't post my comments here anymore as eliterader is only for sharing long term investment.
My position right now is neutral, waiting for a retracement to short Euro again. It seems the GDP numbers were pretty good. Am I missing something?
Hi swim, DX refers to dollar index. Better not be misled by the numbers. Both GU and EU were already way too much underpriced just before the data. That's why GU, (EU) and gold appreciated after the data. Dollar index will show weakness from next week. I am expecting upgap on the pound. Euro is having problem with Spain so I can't predict it accurately.
Hmmm. So you're saying this is a top for dollar of some sort. Well I'm looking for weakness short term as well. Bond markets seem to be on the verge of a breakdown. Can't tell who is more vulnerable. Higher interest rates and high prices seem to be putting pressure on real estate sales. Can't tell if it's just US based. Auto sales probably next to drop. Gas prices rising. Seems like things are changing a bit but can't tell how it will affect the currencies. In the classic case in an equity bull market, risk gets pumped out of the dollar into lesser currencies, then pumped back when there's trouble. I noticed the usdjpy struggling to make headway as everything else broke down. Don't know what it means yet.
I don't hear a lot about the rise in rates-- sort of a stealth move. If it continues things are going to start to break in the economy, possibly the markets. Lots of complacency I believe. I remember a really violent selloff in bonds sometime around 1994. The stock market eventually recovered, but it took out some big money that got caught levered and long bonds. USD Jpy would probably have a big move in this scenario if it happens again.